Biggest moves on the news

Q: Why did a prediction market move today?

Because traders reacted to something: a poll, a statement, a court ruling, a battlefield report or a data print. Each mover here shows the headline that best matches the market, from public news feeds.

Q: Which moves are listed?

Only markets with at least $25k traded in the last 24 hours, ranked by the size of the move weighted by trading, so a thin market can't top the list.

Live prices, updated 25 Oct 2026, 00:59 UTC. Pages refresh about every 5 minutes.

In short

Biggest move in the last 24 hours: Brazil Presidential Election, Flávio Bolsonaro now 83% (up 6 points in 24h, $2.8M traded). 20 markets moved on real volume today.

Brazil Presidential Election
Leading: Flávio Bolsonaro at 83% (up 6 points in 24h). $2.8M traded in 24h. Closes 26 Oct 2026. Brazil.
Flávio Bolsonaro83%
In the news: Brazil’s Lula, Bolsonaro draw thousands to election-eve rallies (Al Jazeera). Source market
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Leading: October 28 at 90% (up 6 points in 24h). $1.1M traded in 24h. Closes 31 Oct 2026.
October 2890%
Source market
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Leading: Flávio Bolsonaro <4% at 45% (up 5 points in 24h). $1.0M traded in 24h. Closes 26 Oct 2026. Brazil.
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%45%
In the news: Brazil’s Lula, Bolsonaro draw thousands to election-eve rallies (Al Jazeera). Source market
Fed Decision in October?
Leading: No change at 95% (up 2 points in 24h). $1.2M traded in 24h. Closes 29 Oct 2026.
No change95%
Source market
Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
Leading: 300-319 at 28% (up 4 points in 24h). $264k traded in 24h. Closes 27 Oct 2026.
300-31928%
Source market
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Leading: Democrats Sweep at 66% (down 1 point in 24h). $3.6M traded in 24h. Closes 4 Nov 2026. United States.
Democrats Sweep66%
Source market
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Leading: Iotova 10-20% at 59% (down 6 points in 24h). $94k traded in 24h. Closes 25 Oct 2026.
Iotova 10-20%59%
Source market
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
Leading: Flavio Bolsonaro at 70% (up 4 points in 24h). $146k traded in 24h. Closes 26 Oct 2026. Brazil.
Flavio Bolsonaro70%
In the news: Brazil’s Lula, Bolsonaro draw thousands to election-eve rallies (Al Jazeera). Source market
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Leading: Yes at 78% (up 6 points in 24h). $53k traded in 24h. Closes 4 Nov 2026.
Yes78%
Source market
Elon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
Leading: 65-89 at 44% (up 5 points in 24h). $93k traded in 24h. Closes 26 Oct 2026.
65-8944%
Source market
Fed Decision in December?
Leading: 25 bps increase at 77% (up 4 points in 24h). $127k traded in 24h. Closes 10 Dec 2026.
25 bps increase77%
Source market
Elon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
Leading: 280-299 at 19% (up 4 points in 24h). $84k traded in 24h. Closes 30 Oct 2026.
280-29919%
Source market
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027
Leading: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 9% (up 6 points in 24h). $34k traded in 24h. Closes 1 Apr 2028.
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms9%
Source market
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory
Leading: Flávio Bolsonaro 4-6% at 33% (up 4 points in 24h). $64k traded in 24h. Closes 26 Oct 2026. Brazil.
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-6%33%
In the news: Brazil’s Lula, Bolsonaro draw thousands to election-eve rallies (Al Jazeera). Source market
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Leading: October 27 at 92% (up 2 points in 24h). $217k traded in 24h. Closes 31 Dec 2026.
October 2792%
Source market
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Leading: Gadi Eizenkot at 52% (up 1 point in 24h). $472k traded in 24h. Closes 28 Oct 2026. Israel.
Gadi Eizenkot52%
Source market
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Leading: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia at 72% (up 1 point in 24h). $768k traded in 24h. Closes 25 Oct 2026. Serbia.
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia72%
Source market
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Leading: Yashar at 71% (up 2 points in 24h). $338k traded in 24h. Closes 28 Oct 2026. Israel.
Yashar71%
Source market
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
Leading: 20-24 at 44% (up 3 points in 24h). $121k traded in 24h. Closes 28 Oct 2026.
20-2444%
Source market
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Leading: December 31, 2027 at 56% (down 4 points in 24h). $36k traded in 24h. Closes 1 Jan 2028.
December 31, 202756%
Source market

See every market on the politics odds and election odds pages.

FAQ

Why did a prediction market move today?

Because traders reacted to something: a poll, a statement, a court ruling, a battlefield report or a data print. Each mover here shows the headline that best matches the market, from public news feeds.

Which moves are listed?

Only markets with at least $25k traded in the last 24 hours, ranked by the size of the move weighted by trading, so a thin market can't top the list.

Your first pack is free

Rip a pack of live markets

Packs hold three live markets drawn at random, with the odds and pack value shown before you pay. Your first one is free.

Rip your free pack

18+. Packs are random and carry a house edge: pack value at open is about 90% of the price.

Biggest moves on the news

Brazil Presidential Election

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Fed Decision in October?

Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Elon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?

Fed Decision in December?

Elon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

FAQ

Rip a pack of live markets