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Election odds

Live prices, updated . Pages refresh about every 5 minutes.

In short

30 live election markets across 9 countries and regions, $10.1M traded in the last 24 hours. Most traded: Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms (Democrats Sweep 66%); Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory (Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 43%); Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner (Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 72%).
Live races
30
Countries
9
Traded in 24h
$10.1M
Closing in 30 days
24

United States

  • Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

    Leading: Democrats Sweep at 66% (down 1 point in 24h). $3.6M traded in 24h. Closes 4 Nov 2026. United States.

    Democrats Sweep66%

    Source market

  • Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

    Leading: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 17% (down 1 point in 24h). $498k traded in 24h. Closes 8 Nov 2028. U.S.

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%

    Source market

  • Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

    Leading: J.D. Vance at 44% (flat in 24h). $471k traded in 24h. Closes 8 Nov 2028. U.S.

    J.D. Vance44%

    Source market

  • Presidential Election Winner 2028

    Leading: JD Vance at 21% (flat in 24h). $335k traded in 24h. Closes 8 Nov 2028. U.S.

    JD Vance21%

    Source market

  • Which party will win the House in 2026?

    Leading: Democratic Party at 92% (flat in 24h). $196k traded in 24h. Closes 4 Nov 2026. U.S.

    Democratic Party92%

    Source market

  • Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

    Leading: Democratic Party at 67% (down 1 point in 24h). $175k traded in 24h. Closes 4 Nov 2026. U.S.

    Democratic Party67%

    In the news: Senate's top Democratic investigator looking into Tether payments to Bo Hines' firm (CoinDesk). Source market

  • Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

    Leading: No Hormuz Agreement at 92% (down 1 point in 24h). $49k traded in 24h. Closes 4 Nov 2026. U.S.

    No Hormuz Agreement92%

    Source market

Brazil

International

  • Texas Senate Election Winner

    Leading: James Talarico (D) at 63% (down 2 points in 24h). $230k traded in 24h. Closes 4 Nov 2026.

    James Talarico (D)63%

    In the news: Winklevoss PAC moves into Texas Senate race with $81K ad buy (Cointelegraph). Source market

  • Michigan Senate Election Winner

    Leading: Abdul El-Sayed (D) at 72% (up 1 point in 24h). $213k traded in 24h. Closes 4 Nov 2026.

    Abdul El-Sayed (D)72%

    Source market

  • Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

    Leading: 20-24 at 44% (down 1 point in 24h). $118k traded in 24h. Closes 28 Oct 2026.

    20-2444%

    Source market

  • California Governor Election Winner

    Leading: Xavier Becerra at 97% (flat in 24h). $110k traded in 24h. Closes 4 Nov 2026.

    Xavier Becerra97%

    Source market

  • Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

    Leading: Iotova 10-20% at 60% (down 3 points in 24h). $90k traded in 24h. Closes 25 Oct 2026.

    Iotova 10-20%60%

    Source market

  • Maine Senate Election Winner

    Leading: Troy Jackson (D) at 64% (down 3 points in 24h). $82k traded in 24h. Closes 4 Nov 2026.

    Troy Jackson (D)64%

    Source market

  • Ohio Governor Election Winner

    Leading: Amy Acton (D) at 82% (down 1 point in 24h). $59k traded in 24h. Closes 4 Nov 2026.

    Amy Acton (D)82%

    Source market

  • Ohio Senate Election Winner

    Leading: Sherrod Brown (D) at 67% (down 3 points in 24h). $53k traded in 24h. Closes 4 Nov 2026.

    Sherrod Brown (D)67%

    Source market

Serbia

  • Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

    Leading: Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia at 72% (down 8 points in 24h). $859k traded in 24h. Closes 25 Oct 2026. Serbia.

    Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia72%

    Source market

  • Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

    Leading: Aleksandar Vučić at 69% (flat in 24h). $149k traded in 24h. Closes 26 Oct 2026. Serbia.

    Aleksandar Vučić69%

    Source market

Israel

  • Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

    Leading: Gadi Eizenkot at 52% (up 1 point in 24h). $505k traded in 24h. Closes 28 Oct 2026. Israel.

    Gadi Eizenkot52%

    Source market

  • Israeli Legislative Election Winner

    Leading: Yashar at 71% (up 2 points in 24h). $330k traded in 24h. Closes 28 Oct 2026. Israel.

    Yashar71%

    Source market

France

  • Next French Presidential Election

    Leading: Marine Le Pen at 46% (down 1 point in 24h). $449k traded in 24h. Closes 19 Apr 2027. France.

    Marine Le Pen46%

    Source market

Bulgaria

  • Bulgaria Presidential Election

    Leading: Iliana Iotova at 88% (flat in 24h). $101k traded in 24h. Closes 26 Oct 2026. Bulgaria.

    Iliana Iotova88%

    Source market

Toronto

  • Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

    Leading: Olivia Chow at 62% (down 5 points in 24h). $50k traded in 24h. Closes 27 Oct 2026. Toronto.

    Olivia Chow62%

    Source market

Taiwan

  • Taipei Mayor Election Winner

    Leading: Chiang Wan-an at 63% (flat in 24h). $37k traded in 24h. Closes 29 Nov 2026. Taiwan.

    Chiang Wan-an63%

    Source market

New to this? Read how election odds work, or see all politics odds.

FAQ

Who is favored to win the election?

In the most traded race right now, Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms, the market leader is Democrats Sweep at 66%. Each race on this page lists its leader and chance, with the time the prices were taken.

How accurate are election betting odds?

Liquid election markets have a decent record, but they are prices, not certainties: a 70% favorite still loses about 3 times in 10. Thin local races can be moved by one trader, so read the volume too.

Are US and French election odds shown here?

Yes. Every race is shown to everyone, wherever they are. Buying packs is not available in some countries, but reading the odds is.

Where do the election odds come from?

Live prices from public Polymarket markets, refreshed every few minutes. A candidate at 55 cents has about a 55% chance in the market's view.

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