How election odds work
In short
Election odds on a prediction market are the prices of shares that pay $1 if a candidate or party wins. A candidate at 55¢ has about a 55% chance in the market's view. The odds move with polls, news and money, and they are a market estimate, not a forecast.
What the number means
Each candidate has a Yes price. The leader is the most expensive, and all the prices add up to about $1. Party markets (most seats, control of a chamber) work the same way.
Why the odds move
Polls, debates, endorsements, scandals and early results all change what traders will pay. On election night prices can swing from 30% to 90% in minutes as counts come in.
How accurate they are
Liquid election markets have a decent record, but a 70% favorite still loses about 3 times in 10. Thin local races can be moved by a single trader. Read the price together with the volume.
Where you can see them
PredictRips shows live election odds for every country, including countries where its packs are not sold. Viewing is open everywhere; only buying depends on where you are.