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Fed rate odds today
Monday, 2 November 2026 · Live prices, updated . Refreshes about every 5 minutes.
In short
For "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)" (closes 9 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC), prediction markets give Hike–Pause–Hike a 72% chance, and Hike–Pause–Pause 25%. Prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC.
Next decision
9 Dec
Leading outcome
Hike–Pause–Hike
Its chance
72%
Traded in 24h
$772k
Fed decision markets
Each row is the market's chance for that outcome. A share costs that many cents and pays $1 if right.
Fed Decision in December?
Closes 10 Dec 2026, 04:59 UTC · $660k traded in 24h
Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ means the market sees about a 62% chance and a correct share returns about 1.6x. Prices come from public Polymarket markets and move every minute; this page is rebuilt about every 5 minutes and says when its numbers were taken. Full guide: converting odds to probability. All fed rate markets, beyond today: Economy and Fed odds. The next meeting, explained: the December 2026 FOMC.
Your first pack is free
Rip Fed rate markets in a pack
Every pack holds 3 live prediction markets. Odds and pack value are shown before you pay. Hold to the result or cash out at the live price.
18+. Packs are random and carry a house edge: pack value at open is about 90% of the price.
FAQ
Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting?+
At 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC, the market priced Hike–Pause–Hike at 72%, Hike–Pause–Pause at 25%, Other at 1% for "Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)".
How are Fed rate odds different from CME FedWatch?+
FedWatch derives chances from fed funds futures prices; prediction markets trade a share on each outcome directly. The two usually agree within a few points; when they differ, the gap is worth reading, not trading on.
Why do Fed odds move?+
Inflation and jobs data, Fed speeches and market stress all change what traders will pay. The 24-hour move on each outcome shows how much the latest news shifted it.