The next Fed meeting: 8 to 9 December 2026
In short
The Federal Reserve's next rate decision is on Wednesday 9 December 2026. As of 2 Nov 2026, 21:23 UTC, prediction markets put "25 bps increase" as the most likely outcome, at 73%.
- Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 December 2026
- 37
- 3
- $73.3M
Key facts
- Meeting
- Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 December 2026
- Decision
- Statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on 9 December, then the chair's press conference
- Projections
- December meetings publish the Summary of Economic Projections (the dot plot)
- Meeting before
- 27 to 28 October 2026
Fed decision in December
| Outcome | Chance | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 73% | 1.38 · -264 |
| No change | 26% | 3.9 · +292 |
| 50+ bps increase | 2% | 50 · +4900 |
| 25 bps decrease | 0.5% | 182 · +18082 |
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 97% | 1.03 · -3409 |
| 1 (25 bps) | 0.9% | 118 · +11665 |
The Fed rate at the end of 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 4.25% | 72% | 1.39 · -255 |
| 4.0% | 24% | 4.2 · +318 |
| ≥ 4.5% | 3% | 38 · +3746 |
| 3.75% | 1% | 69 · +6797 |
| 3.5% | 1.0% | 105 · +10426 |
| 3.25% | 0.7% | 154 · +15285 |
What the FOMC decides
The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the federal funds rate, the overnight rate banks charge each other. A cut makes borrowing cheaper across the economy; a hike makes it dearer. The committee meets eight times a year.
How the markets price it
The decision market lists each outcome (no change, a 25 basis point cut, a bigger cut, a hike) with its chance; the prices add up to about 100%. The cuts-this-year and year-end-rate markets show the path the market expects beyond December.
What moves the odds
Inflation and jobs reports between meetings, speeches by committee members, and the statement and projections from the meeting before. Prices often move sharply on the morning of a data release, and again at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on decision day.