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Economy
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%chancen/a
- Vol$55.3M
- 24h$38k
- Liquidity$3.4M
- Open interest$1.9M
- Closesin 59d
- 0 (0 bps)
- 1 (25 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)
- 3 (75 bps)
In short
- 0 (0 bps), the favourite in "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026", trades at 97% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:17 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: up 1 pt; 30 days: up 1 pt.
- Traded: $55.3M in total, $38k in 24 hours; open interest $1.9M; liquidity $3.4M.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on 0 (0 bps) under 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 97% | n/a | 1.03 | -3179 | ||
| 1 (25 bps) | 0.9% | 0 | 118 | +11665 |
What would move this market
- Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
- Resolution source:
- www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 97% means about 97¢ a share and roughly 1.03x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
The event, explained (dates, what is decided and every market on it): the next Fed meeting.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 20:17 UTC, 0 (0 bps) at 97%, then 1 (25 bps) at 0.9% and 2 (50 bps) at 0.4%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
0 (0 bps): unchanged in 24 hours, up 1 pt in 7 days and up 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:17 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$55.3M in total and $38k in the last 24 hours, with about $1.9M in open positions (open interest) and $3.4M of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:17 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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