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Economy

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: 4.25%

72%chanceup 2 pts24h

  • Vol$7.1M
  • 24h$4k
  • Liquidity$409k
  • Open interest$47k
  • Closesin 59d
  • 4.25%
  • 4.0%
  • ≥ 4.5%
  • 3.75%
4.25% chance over 30 days: from 47% to 72%.

In short

4.25% leads at 72%, ahead of 4.0% (25%) and ≥ 4.5% (2%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:50 UTC. 4.25% is up 25 pts over 30 days. 6 outcomes are priced and $7.1M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • 4.25%, the favourite in "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026", trades at 72% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:50 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 2 pts; 7 days: up 1 pt; 30 days: up 25 pts.
  • Traded: $7.1M in total, $4k in 24 hours; open interest $47k; liquidity $409k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on 4.25% 2¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:50 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
4.25%72%up 21.39-255
4.0%25%down 14.1+308
≥ 4.5%2%043+4155
3.75%1%069+6797
3.5%1.0%0105+10426
3.25%0.7%0154+15285

9 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • 4.25%72%

    up 2 pts in 24h

  • 4.0%25%

    down 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when 4.25% moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · 4.25% down 11 pts (79% to 67%)

  2. · 4.25% up 8 pts (71% to 79%)

  3. · 4.25% up 8 pts (59% to 67%)

  4. · 4.25% up 13 pts (50% to 63%)

  5. · 4.25% down 20 pts (67% to 47%)

  6. · 4.25% down 6 pts (70% to 64%)

What would move this market

  • Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
  • 4.25% leads 4.0% by 47 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Resolution source:
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 72% means about 72¢ a share and roughly 1.39x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

The event, explained (dates, what is decided and every market on it): the next Fed meeting.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 20:50 UTC, 4.25% at 72%, then 4.0% at 25% and ≥ 4.5% at 2%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

4.25%: up 2 pts in 24 hours, up 1 pt in 7 days and up 25 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:50 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$7.1M in total and $4k in the last 24 hours, with about $47k in open positions (open interest) and $409k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:50 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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