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Economy
Fed rate cut by...?
52%chancedown 1 pt
- Vol$3.9M
- 24h$1k
- Liquidity$86k
- Open interest$88k
- Closesin 453d
- July 2027 Meeting
- April 2027 Meeting
- June 2027 Meeting
- March 2027 Meeting
In short
- July 2027 Meeting, the favourite in "Fed rate cut by", trades at 52% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 12:28 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 2 pts; 7 days: up 2 pts; 30 days: up 3 pts.
- Traded: $3.9M in total, $1k in 24 hours; open interest $88k; liquidity $86k.
- Listed to close on 29 January 2028; bid-ask spread on July 2027 Meeting 77¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2027 Meeting | 52% | down 1 | 1.94 | -106 | ||
| April 2027 Meeting | 36% | down 14 | 2.8 | +178 | ||
| June 2027 Meeting | 31% | up 3 | 3.3 | +228 | ||
| March 2027 Meeting | 13% | up 2 | 8.0 | +700 | ||
| January 2027 Meeting | 9% | 0 | 11 | +1049 | ||
| December 2026 Meeting | 1% | n/a | 71 | +7043 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
April 2027 Meeting36%
June 2027 Meeting31%
March 2027 Meeting13%
Timeline of big moves
· July 2027 Meeting down 18 pts (70% to 52%)
· July 2027 Meeting up 11 pts (59% to 70%)
· July 2027 Meeting up 15 pts (46% to 61%)
· July 2027 Meeting down 4 pts (50% to 46%)
· July 2027 Meeting down 6 pts (60% to 54%)
· July 2027 Meeting up 10 pts (50% to 60%)
What would move this market
- Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Resolution source:
- www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
- Closes:
- 29 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 52% means about 52¢ a share and roughly 1.94x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Fed rate cut by...?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 12:28 UTC, July 2027 Meeting at 52%, then April 2027 Meeting at 36% and June 2027 Meeting at 31%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
July 2027 Meeting: down 2 pts in 24 hours, up 2 pts in 7 days and up 3 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 12:28 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 29 January 2028 (29 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTC, in about 453 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$3.9M in total and $1k in the last 24 hours, with about $88k in open positions (open interest) and $86k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 12:28 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Fed rate cut by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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