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Economy
How high will inflation get in 2026?
17%chanceup 2 pts
- Vol$1.5M
- 24h$2k
- Liquidity$36k
- Open interest$218k
- Closesin 92d
- Above 4.5%
- Above 5%
- Above 8%
- Above 6%
In short
- Above 4.5%, the favourite in "How high will inflation get in 2026", trades at 17% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 16:41 UTC).
- 24-hour move: up 2 pts; 7 days: up 2 pts; 30 days: unchanged.
- Traded: $1.5M in total, $2k in 24 hours; open interest $218k; liquidity $36k.
- Listed to close on 1 February 2027; bid-ask spread on Above 4.5% 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.5% | 17% | up 2 | 6.1 | +506 | ||
| Above 5% | 8% | 0 | 13 | +1150 | ||
| Above 8% | 6% | up 2 | 17 | +1609 | ||
| Above 6% | 5% | up 1 | 21 | +1983 | ||
| Above 10% | 2% | 0 | 41 | +3982 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
Above 8%6%
Above 4.5%17%
Above 6%5%
Timeline of big moves
· Above 4.5% down 6 pts (19% to 13%)
· Above 4.5% up 7 pts (12% to 19%)
· Above 4.5% up 7 pts (13% to 20%)
· Above 4.5% down 5 pts (17% to 12%)
What would move this market
- Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
- Thin book: about $36k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
In the news
- Palestinians in Lebanon suffering worsened by high energy prices, inflation · Al Jazeera, 1 Nov 2026, 13:25 UTC
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
- Resolution source:
- www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm
- Closes:
- 1 Feb 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 17% means about 17¢ a share and roughly 6.1x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "How high will inflation get in 2026?"?
At 1 Nov 2026, 16:41 UTC, Above 4.5% at 17%, then Above 5% at 8% and Above 8% at 6%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
Above 4.5%: up 2 pts in 24 hours, up 2 pts in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 16:41 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 February 2027 (1 Feb 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 92 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$1.5M in total and $2k in the last 24 hours, with about $218k in open positions (open interest) and $36k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 16:41 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "How high will inflation get in 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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