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Big questions: live odds
In short
- 151
- $5.2B
- $51.6M
- 16
Resolving in the next 14 days
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
None34%Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep78%California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra99%Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party96%Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party79%Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)77%
Elections
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance18%Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance36%Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen40%Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep78%California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra99%Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party96%Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
None34%Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party79%Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)77%Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson69%Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)80%Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Yes26%Maine Senate Election Winner
Troy Jackson (D)75%Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an67%Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)72%Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola73%Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo85%Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Democratic66%Ukraine election held by...?
December 31, 20263%Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Pete Ricketts (R)72%Texas Governor Election Winner
Greg Abbott (R)61%Kansas Senate Election Winner
Adam Hamilton (D)62%Iowa Senate Election Winner
Ashley Hinson (R)52%South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Darline Graham Nordone (R)69%
Politics
Pro Football: 2027 Champion
San Francisco 49ers14%Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Yes1%Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Yes2%New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
December 31, 20262%EPL: 2027 Champion
Arsenal70%MLS Cup Winner 2026
Nashville SC21%Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Yes2%Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Viking Therapeutics11%Trump out as President before 2027?
Yes4%Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Yes2%Worlds 2026: Winner
Gen.G48%LALIGA: 2027 Champion
Barcelona72%Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑7.5k20%US military action against Cuba by...?
December 318%IPOs before 2027?
Anthropic93%Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3113%Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion
Minnesota Vikings8%Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 202831%Crude Oil all time high by...?
December 3114%Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
December 3116%Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion
Cincinnati Bengals10%Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
192%Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Yes6%Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Yes4%Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?
December 31, 20262%Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 20263%France declares state of emergency by...?
December 318%Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
December 315%Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Yes1%Bachelorette Season 22 Winner
Richard Van De Water0%What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
↑ $5,0004%Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 315%Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 202762%Will Alberta join the US?
Yes2%Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
December 315%Satoshi's identity be proven by...?
December 312%
World
Netanyahu out by...?
June 30, 202744%Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro85%Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Yes7%Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes17%US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 3166%Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Yes2%Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
November 199%Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei86%US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 3199%Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202710%US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
Yes3%Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Yes5%Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202726%Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
Yes3%US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3114%Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Yes6%Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3113%Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Yes2%Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
December 313%NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3115%Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Yes2%Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3133%Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
March 31, 202734%Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 313%Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
472%Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 312%Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
December 31, 20263%Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 312%Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 202794%Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 20266%Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Yes4%Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3112%China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Yes5%US strike on Mexico by...?
December 314%Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
December 31, 20262%Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3110%US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 3140%Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 317%Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
December 313%Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Yes11%US strike on Colombia by...?
December 3118%Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 3174%Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China80%Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 318%Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
December 31, 20264%Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Yes8%
Economy
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)97%Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Yes13%Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase73%Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA57%What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.25%72%Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting52%US recession by end of 2026?
Yes6%
Crypto
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
↓ 70,00049%When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
by December 31, 202724%Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Yes3%What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
↓ 2,00046%Bitcoin all time high by ___?
Yes3%Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$50M99%Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ?
December 31, 202760%Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
December 31, 202739%Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$100M7%Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$50M19%Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Yes3%Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$150M80%Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$100M98%Metamask FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$100M6%Pump.fun airdrop by ....?
Yes5%What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?
↑ 10045%Ethereum all time high by ___?
Yes2%MegaETH airdrop by...?
Yes15%What price will Solana hit in 2026?
↓ 9091%What price will Bitcoin hit in November?
↑ 80,00069%
Tech
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
Yes3%Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX59%Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.5T90%Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 202692%Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Google56%AI bubble burst by...?
December 31, 20268%Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
$1.75–$2.0T34%OpenAI IPO by...?
December 31, 20263%Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
December 31, 202924%OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO by December 31, 202696%
Sports
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Barcelona23%NBA: 2027 Champion
San Antonio Spurs23%F1 Constructors' Champion
Ferrari0%NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the Year
Labaron Philon Jr.0%
Culture
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day95%Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday53%
140 more markets with $500k to $2M traded are listed by subject on Polymarket odds. Numbers to cite: prediction market stats. The week's moves: this week in prediction markets.
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FAQ
What are the biggest prediction markets right now?
By money traded: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 ($1.3B), Presidential Election Winner 2028 ($726.7M), Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 ($720.9M), Next French Presidential Election ($164.2M), Netanyahu out by...? ($125.0M), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:19 UTC.
How are these odds calculated?
They are live prices from public Polymarket markets. A share of each outcome pays $1 if it happens, so its price in cents reads as the chance in percent.
How often are the pages updated?
Every page is rebuilt about every 5 minutes and states the time its numbers were taken. Questions leave the list when they resolve.