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Elections
Kansas Senate Election Winner
63%chanceup 11 pts
- Vol$2.2M
- 24h$246k
- Liquidity$1.1M
- Open interest$966k
- Closesin 2d
- Adam Hamilton (D)
- Roger Marshall (R)
In short
- Adam Hamilton (D), the favourite in "Kansas Senate Election Winner", trades at 63% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 10:02 UTC).
- 24-hour move: up 11 pts; 7 days: up 25 pts; 30 days: up 31 pts.
- Traded: $2.2M in total, $246k in 24 hours; open interest $966k; liquidity $1.1M.
- Listed to close on 4 November 2026; bid-ask spread on Adam Hamilton (D) 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Hamilton (D) | 63% | up 11 | 1.60 | -167 | ||
| Roger Marshall (R) | 39% | down 10 | 2.6 | +160 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
Adam Hamilton (D)63%
Roger Marshall (R)39%
Timeline of big moves
· Adam Hamilton (D) up 11 pts (51% to 62%)
· Adam Hamilton (D) up 8 pts (42% to 50%)
· Adam Hamilton (D) up 8 pts (30% to 38%)
What would move this market
- Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
- Adam Hamilton (D) leads Roger Marshall (R) by 24 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
How it resolves
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
- Closes:
- 4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 63% means about 63¢ a share and roughly 1.60x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.
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FAQ
Who is favoured in "Kansas Senate Election Winner"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 10:02 UTC, Adam Hamilton (D) at 63%, then Roger Marshall (R) at 39%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
Adam Hamilton (D): up 11 pts in 24 hours, up 25 pts in 7 days and up 31 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:02 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 4 November 2026 (4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC, in about 2 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$2.2M in total and $246k in the last 24 hours, with about $966k in open positions (open interest) and $1.1M of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:02 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Kansas Senate Election Winner". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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