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Elections · U.S.
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
16%chance0
- Vol$1.3B
- 24h$1.3M
- Liquidity$69.0M
- Open interest$8.2M
- Closesin 736d
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Gavin Newsom
- Jon Ossoff
- Kamala Harris
In short
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the favourite in "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028", trades at 16% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 1 pt; 30 days: down 1 pt.
- Traded: $1.3B in total, $1.3M in 24 hours; open interest $8.2M; liquidity $69.0M.
- Listed to close on 8 November 2028; bid-ask spread on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez under 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16% | 0 | 6.3 | +529 | ||
| Gavin Newsom | 16% | 0 | 6.4 | +541 | ||
| Jon Ossoff | 15% | down 1 | 6.9 | +587 | ||
| Kamala Harris | 5% | 0 | 18 | +1735 | ||
| Josh Shapiro | 5% | 0 | 19 | +1842 | ||
| Pete Buttigieg | 5% | n/a | 20 | +1900 | ||
| Andy Beshear | 4% | n/a | 28 | +2717 | ||
| Raphael Warnock | 3% | 0 | 33 | +3179 | ||
| James Talarico | 3% | 0 | 36 | +3536 | ||
| Wes Moore | 2% | 0 | 49 | +4778 | ||
| Mark Kelly | 2% | 0 | 57 | +5614 | ||
| Ro Khanna | 2% | 0 | 59 | +5782 | ||
| Rahm Emanuel | 2% | 0 | 63 | +6150 | ||
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 2% | 0 | 63 | +6150 | ||
| J.B. Pritzker | 1% | 0 | 71 | +7043 | ||
| Bernie Sanders | 1% | 0 | 74 | +7307 | ||
| Chelsea Clinton | 1% | 0 | 80 | +7900 | ||
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.9% | 0 | 111 | +11011 | ||
| Cory Booker | 0.8% | n/a | 133 | +13233 | ||
| Michelle Obama | 0.5% | n/a | 182 | +18082 | ||
| Jon Stewart | 0.5% | n/a | 182 | +18082 | ||
| Ruben Gallego | 0.5% | n/a | 200 | +19900 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
Jon Ossoff15%
What would move this market
- Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
- A close race: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads Gavin Newsom by 0 points, so a single strong news day could flip the order.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
- Closes:
- 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 16% means about 16¢ a share and roughly 6.3x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.
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FAQ
Who is favoured in "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 16%, then Gavin Newsom at 16% and Jon Ossoff at 15%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: unchanged in 24 hours, down 1 pt in 7 days and down 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 8 November 2028 (8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC, in about 736 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$1.3B in total and $1.3M in the last 24 hours, with about $8.2M in open positions (open interest) and $69.0M of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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