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Elections

California Governor Election Winner

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Xavier Becerra

98%chance024h

  • Vol$44.2M
  • 24h$271k
  • Liquidity$8.3M
  • Open interest$2.3M
  • Closesin 1d
  • Xavier Becerra
  • Steve Hilton
  • Rick Caruso
  • Alex Padilla
Xavier Becerra chance over 30 days: from 96% to 98%.

In short

Xavier Becerra leads at 98%, ahead of Steve Hilton (2%) and Rick Caruso (0.1%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC. Xavier Becerra is up 2 pts over 30 days. 2 outcomes are priced and $44.2M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 4 November 2026.
Key numbers
  • Xavier Becerra, the favourite in "California Governor Election Winner", trades at 98% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: up 1 pt; 30 days: up 2 pts.
  • Traded: $44.2M in total, $271k in 24 hours; open interest $2.3M; liquidity $8.3M.
  • Listed to close on 4 November 2026; bid-ask spread on Xavier Becerra under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/california-governor-election-2026”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Xavier Becerra98%01.02-5782
Steve Hilton2%057+5614

21 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

What would move this market

  • Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
  • Xavier Becerra leads Steve Hilton by 97 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Closes:
4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 98% means about 98¢ a share and roughly 1.02x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "California Governor Election Winner"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC, Xavier Becerra at 98%, then Steve Hilton at 2% and Rick Caruso at 0.1%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Xavier Becerra: unchanged in 24 hours, up 1 pt in 7 days and up 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 4 November 2026 (4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC, in about 1 day) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$44.2M in total and $271k in the last 24 hours, with about $2.3M in open positions (open interest) and $8.3M of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "California Governor Election Winner". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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