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Elections · U.S.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: J.D. Vance

36%chancedown 2 pts24h

  • Vol$720.9M
  • 24h$950k
  • Liquidity$47.7M
  • Open interest$6.1M
  • Closesin 736d
  • J.D. Vance
  • Marco Rubio
  • Ron DeSantis
  • Tucker Carlson
J.D. Vance chance over 30 days: from 50% to 36%.

In short

J.D. Vance leads at 36%, ahead of Marco Rubio (19%) and Ron DeSantis (4%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC. J.D. Vance is down 15 pts over 30 days. 12 outcomes are priced and $720.9M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 8 November 2028.
Key numbers
  • J.D. Vance, the favourite in "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028", trades at 36% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 2 pts; 7 days: down 2 pts; 30 days: down 15 pts.
  • Traded: $720.9M in total, $950k in 24 hours; open interest $6.1M; liquidity $47.7M.
  • Listed to close on 8 November 2028; bid-ask spread on J.D. Vance under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/republican-presidential-nominee-2028”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
J.D. Vance36%down 22.8+181
Marco Rubio19%down 15.3+429
Ron DeSantis4%024+2310
Tucker Carlson3%n/a33+3179
Ted Cruz3%n/a39+3822
Ivanka Trump2%059+5782
Donald Trump2%n/a61+5961
Donald Trump Jr.2%061+5961
Glenn Youngkin1%0100+9900
Thomas Massie0.9%0118+11665
Brian Kemp0.8%n/a133+13233
Elon Musk0.8%n/a133+13233

31 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • J.D. Vance36%

    down 2 pts in 24h

  • Marco Rubio19%

    down 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when J.D. Vance moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · J.D. Vance down 7 pts (44% to 37%)

What would move this market

  • Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
  • J.D. Vance leads Marco Rubio by 17 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.

In the news

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Closes:
8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 36% means about 36¢ a share and roughly 2.8x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC, J.D. Vance at 36%, then Marco Rubio at 19% and Ron DeSantis at 4%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

J.D. Vance: down 2 pts in 24 hours, down 2 pts in 7 days and down 15 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 8 November 2028 (8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC, in about 736 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$720.9M in total and $950k in the last 24 hours, with about $6.1M in open positions (open interest) and $47.7M of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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