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Weekly roundup · 2 Nov to 8 Nov 2026
This week in prediction markets
In short
- "Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?" settled Yes ($1.9M traded).
- "Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?" settled No ($1.6M traded).
What resolved
- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes
- Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes
- Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?No
- Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?Yes
- Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?Yes
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?No
- Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?Yes
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?No
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ETDown
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 October 26-November 1?No
- Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 26-November 1?No
Most traded in the last 24 hours
| Question | Favourite | 24h | Traded 24h | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) | None34% | up 8 | 3 Nov 2026 | |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | Democrats Sweep78% | up 7 | 4 Nov 2026 | |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? | Democratic Party96% | up 1 | 4 Nov 2026 | |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party79% | up 7 | 4 Nov 2026 | |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | JD Vance18% | 0 | 8 Nov 2028 | |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16% | 0 | 8 Nov 2028 | |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D)79% | up 3 | 4 Nov 2026 | |
| Texas Senate Election Winner | James Talarico (D)76% | up 5 | 4 Nov 2026 | |
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen40% | 0 | 19 Apr 2027 | |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? | October 3198% | 0 | 1 Jan 2027 |
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FAQ
What moved most in prediction markets this week?
No big question moved more than 3 points.
What resolved?
"Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?": Yes; "Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?": No; "Will there be no Hormuz agreement?": Yes; "Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?": No.
How is this roundup made?
From Polymarket's public data. Moves compare each big question's favourite at the start and end of the week (Monday 00:00 UTC to Monday 00:00 UTC) from its daily price history; results are the most traded markets that closed and settled during the week, single games left out.