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Weekly roundup · 28 Sept to 4 Oct 2026
Prediction markets: the week of 28 Sept to 4 Oct 2026
In short
- "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?": "October 31" moved from 49% to 63% on Polymarket in the week of 28 Sept to 4 Oct 2026.
- "Venezuela leader end of 2026?": "Nicolás Maduro" moved from 60% to 71% on Polymarket in the week of 28 Sept to 4 Oct 2026.
- "Next French Presidential Election": "Marine Le Pen" moved from 38% to 45% on Polymarket in the week of 28 Sept to 4 Oct 2026.
- "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" settled Yes ($24.5M traded).
- "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?" settled No ($12.3M traded).
Biggest moves
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 3149% → 63% up 14 pts
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro60% → 71% up 11 pts
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen38% → 45% up 7 pts
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
by December 31, 202735% → 28% down 6 pts
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
↓ 2,00014% → 20% up 5 pts
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep62% → 65% up 3 pts
What resolved
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?No
- Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Yes
- Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?No
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?No
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?No
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?No
New big markets
| Question | Favourite | 24h | Traded | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? | December 31, 202831% | n/a | 1 Jan 2029 | |
| Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...? | December 31, 202827% | up 1 | 1 Jan 2029 | |
| Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...? | December 31, 202832% | up 1 | 1 Jan 2029 | |
| Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...? | December 31, 202721% | n/a | 1 Jan 2029 | |
| Texas enacts data center moratorium by...? | December 31, 202722% | n/a | 1 Jan 2029 | |
| Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...? | December 31, 20264% | 0 | 1 Jan 2029 |
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FAQ
What moved most in prediction markets in the week of 28 Sept to 4 Oct 2026?
"US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?": "October 31" 49% to 63%; "Venezuela leader end of 2026?": "Nicolás Maduro" 60% to 71%; "Next French Presidential Election": "Marine Le Pen" 38% to 45%.
What resolved?
"Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?": Yes; "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?": No; "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?": No; "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?": No.
How is this roundup made?
From Polymarket's public data. Moves compare each big question's favourite at the start and end of the week (Monday 00:00 UTC to Monday 00:00 UTC) from its daily price history; results are the most traded markets that closed and settled during the week, single games left out.