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World

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Nicolás Maduro

85%chanceup 1 pt24h

  • Vol$99.3M
  • 24h$21k
  • Liquidity$2.5M
  • Open interest$648k
  • Closesin 59d
  • Nicolás Maduro
  • Delcy Rodríguez
  • No Head of State
  • María Corina Machado
Nicolás Maduro chance over 30 days: from 70% to 85%.

In short

Nicolás Maduro leads at 85%, ahead of Delcy Rodríguez (11%) and No Head of State (1%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:56 UTC. Nicolás Maduro is up 15 pts over 30 days. 3 outcomes are priced and $99.3M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Nicolás Maduro, the favourite in "Venezuela leader end of 2026", trades at 85% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 21:56 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 1 pt; 7 days: up 4 pts; 30 days: up 15 pts.
  • Traded: $99.3M in total, $21k in 24 hours; open interest $648k; liquidity $2.5M.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Nicolás Maduro under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:56 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Nicolás Maduro85%up 11.18-564
Delcy Rodríguez11%n/a9.5+852
No Head of State1%069+6797

13 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Nicolás Maduro85%

    up 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Nicolás Maduro moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Nicolás Maduro up 5 pts (77% to 83%)

  2. · Nicolás Maduro up 6 pts (75% to 82%)

  3. · Nicolás Maduro up 4 pts (67% to 71%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • Nicolás Maduro leads Delcy Rodríguez by 74 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Resolution source:
www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 85% means about 85¢ a share and roughly 1.18x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Venezuela leader end of 2026"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 21:56 UTC, Nicolás Maduro at 85%, then Delcy Rodríguez at 11% and No Head of State at 1%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Nicolás Maduro: up 1 pt in 24 hours, up 4 pts in 7 days and up 15 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:56 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$99.3M in total and $21k in the last 24 hours, with about $648k in open positions (open interest) and $2.5M of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:56 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Venezuela leader end of 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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