PredictRips

PredictRips deals packs of 3 live Polymarket markets. Odds shown before you pay. First pack free.How it works

World

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Chance of Yes

7%chanceup 1 pt24h

  • Vol$77.2M
  • 24h$15k
  • Liquidity$154k
  • Open interest$556k
  • Closesin 59d
Price history
Yes chance over 30 days: from 8% to 7%.

In short

Prediction markets give Yes a 7% chance (up 1 pt in 24 hours), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTC. $77.2M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Yes on "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by" trades at 7% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 1 pt; 7 days: down 2 pts; 30 days: unchanged.
  • Traded: $77.2M in total, $15k in 24 hours; open interest $556k; liquidity $154k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 2¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTC. How the numbers work.

The odds

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Yes7%up 114+1329
No93%01.08-1329

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 59 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
  • At 7% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 7% means about 7¢ a share and roughly 14x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

Your first pack is free

Rip a pack of live politics markets

Every pack holds 3 live prediction markets. Odds and pack value are shown before you pay. Hold to the result or cash out at the live price.

Rip your free pack

18+. Packs are random and carry a house edge: pack value at open is about 90% of the price.

FAQ

What are the odds on "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 7%, which is decimal odds of 14 or American +1329. A Yes share costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

How have the odds moved?

Yes: up 1 pt in 24 hours, down 2 pts in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$77.2M in total and $15k in the last 24 hours, with about $556k in open positions (open interest) and $154k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

Related markets

Odds today

Read first