The 2026 US midterm elections, explained
In short
- Tuesday 3 November 2026
- 1
- 3
- $115.2M
Key facts
- Election day
- Tuesday 3 November 2026
- House
- All 435 seats; 218 is a majority
- Senate
- 35 of 100 seats (33 regular, 2 special); control takes 51, or 50 plus the vice president's tie-break
- Governors
- 36 states elect a governor
Balance of power after the midterms
| Outcome | Chance | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats Sweep | 78% | 1.29 · -344 |
| R Senate, D House | 18% | 5.7 · +471 |
| Republicans Sweep | 5% | 22 · +2122 |
| D Senate, R House | 0.5% | 182 · +18082 |
Which party wins the House
| Outcome | Chance | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 96% | 1.05 · -2122 |
| Republican Party | 5% | 22 · +2122 |
Which party wins the Senate
| Outcome | Chance | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 78% | 1.29 · -344 |
| Republican Party | 23% | 4.4 · +344 |
What's decided
Midterms fall halfway through a presidential term. Every seat in the House of Representatives is elected for two years, about a third of the Senate for six, and most states hold governor and state-legislature races on the same day.
Control of each chamber decides who sets the agenda in Congress for the next two years: which bills get a vote, committee chairs and investigations, and, in the Senate, confirmations of judges and officials.
How the markets read it
The balance-of-power market prices the four combinations (each party winning the House and the Senate); the chamber markets price each one alone. Because a party can win one chamber and lose the other, the combined market is the one to read for split control.
Individual Senate and governor races have their own markets, linked below while they are traded heavily enough to have a page.
On election night
Polls close state by state through the evening, starting at 6 p.m. Eastern in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Market prices usually move most as counts come in from the closely fought states, and can swing by tens of points within minutes.
Close races can take days to call, especially where mail ballots are counted late. Each market settles on the source named in its own rules, not on a single network's call; the rules are on each question page.