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World
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
14%chanceup 2 pts
- Vol$17.8M
- 24h$32k
- Liquidity$274k
- Open interest$1.0M
- Closesin 60d
- December 31
- November 30
- October 31
In short
- December 31, the favourite in "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by", trades at 14% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC).
- 24-hour move: up 2 pts; 7 days: down 3 pts; 30 days: down 4 pts.
- Traded: $17.8M in total, $32k in 24 hours; open interest $1.0M; liquidity $274k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on December 31 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 14% | up 2 | 7.4 | +641 | ||
| November 30 | 7% | up 1 | 14 | +1329 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
December 3114%
November 307%
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
- Resolution source:
- portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 14% means about 14¢ a share and roughly 7.4x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC, December 31 at 14%, then November 30 at 7% and October 31 at 0.2%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
December 31: up 2 pts in 24 hours, down 3 pts in 7 days and down 4 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$17.8M in total and $32k in the last 24 hours, with about $1.0M in open positions (open interest) and $274k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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