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Elections · U.S.
Presidential Election Winner 2028
18%chance0
- Vol$726.7M
- 24h$2.6M
- Liquidity$57.3M
- Open interest$31.2M
- Closesin 736d
- JD Vance
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Gavin Newsom
- Jon Ossoff
In short
- JD Vance, the favourite in "Presidential Election Winner 2028", trades at 18% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 1 pt; 30 days: down 2 pts.
- Traded: $726.7M in total, $2.6M in 24 hours; open interest $31.2M; liquidity $57.3M.
- Listed to close on 8 November 2028; bid-ask spread on JD Vance under 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 18% | 0 | 5.4 | +442 | ||
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 12% | 0 | 8.1 | +710 | ||
| Gavin Newsom | 12% | 0 | 8.3 | +730 | ||
| Jon Ossoff | 11% | 0 | 9.5 | +848 | ||
| Marco Rubio | 9% | down 1 | 11 | +1049 | ||
| Kamala Harris | 4% | 0 | 26 | +2464 | ||
| Josh Shapiro | 3% | 0 | 36 | +3536 | ||
| Pete Buttigieg | 3% | 0 | 37 | +3604 | ||
| Ron DeSantis | 2% | 0 | 47 | +4551 | ||
| James Talarico | 2% | 0 | 48 | +4662 | ||
| Andy Beshear | 2% | 0 | 50 | +4900 | ||
| Raphael Warnock | 2% | up 1 | 59 | +5782 | ||
| Donald Trump | 1% | 0 | 69 | +6797 | ||
| Tucker Carlson | 1% | 0 | 74 | +7307 | ||
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1% | 0 | 87 | +8596 | ||
| Wes Moore | 1% | 0 | 95 | +9424 | ||
| Mark Kelly | 1% | 0 | 95 | +9424 | ||
| Thomas Massie | 0.9% | n/a | 118 | +11665 | ||
| JB Pritzker | 0.8% | n/a | 133 | +13233 | ||
| Ro Khanna | 0.8% | n/a | 133 | +13233 | ||
| Ivanka Trump | 0.7% | n/a | 143 | +14186 | ||
| Donald Trump Jr. | 0.5% | n/a | 182 | +18082 | ||
| Ted Cruz | 0.5% | n/a | 182 | +18082 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
Marco Rubio9%
Raphael Warnock2%
Timeline of big moves
· JD Vance up 5 pts (18% to 23%)
What would move this market
- Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
- A close race: JD Vance leads Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by 6 points, so a single strong news day could flip the order.
How it resolves
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
- Closes:
- 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 18% means about 18¢ a share and roughly 5.4x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.
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FAQ
Who is favoured in "Presidential Election Winner 2028"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC, JD Vance at 18%, then Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12% and Gavin Newsom at 12%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
JD Vance: unchanged in 24 hours, down 1 pt in 7 days and down 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 8 November 2028 (8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC, in about 736 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$726.7M in total and $2.6M in the last 24 hours, with about $31.2M in open positions (open interest) and $57.3M of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:24 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Presidential Election Winner 2028". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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