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Elections · France

Next French Presidential Election

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Marine Le Pen

40%chance024h

  • Vol$164.2M
  • 24h$943k
  • Liquidity$18.0M
  • Open interest$4.0M
  • Closesin 167d
  • Marine Le Pen
  • David Lisnard
  • Édouard Philippe
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Marine Le Pen chance over 30 days: from 45% to 40%.

In short

Marine Le Pen leads at 40%, ahead of David Lisnard (16%) and Édouard Philippe (12%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:49 UTC. Marine Le Pen is down 5 pts over 30 days. 13 outcomes are priced and $164.2M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 19 April 2027.
Key numbers
  • Marine Le Pen, the favourite in "Next French Presidential Election", trades at 40% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 21:49 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 3 pts; 30 days: down 5 pts.
  • Traded: $164.2M in total, $943k in 24 hours; open interest $4.0M; liquidity $18.0M.
  • Listed to close on 19 April 2027; bid-ask spread on Marine Le Pen under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/next-french-presidential-election”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:49 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Marine Le Pen40%02.5+148
David Lisnard16%up 16.3+535
Édouard Philippe12%n/a8.7+770
Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%down 28.7+770
Christine Lagarde7%up 114+1261
Raphaël Glucksmann3%up 135+3409
François Hollande2%n/a49+4778
Jordan Bardella2%051+5028
Dominique de Villepin1%091+8991
Éric Zemmour0.9%0118+11665
Gabriel Attal0.9%0118+11665
Bruno Retailleau0.9%0118+11665
François Baroin0.5%0182+18082

32 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%

    down 2 pts in 24h

  • Christine Lagarde7%

    up 1 pt in 24h

  • David Lisnard16%

    up 1 pt in 24h

What would move this market

  • Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
  • Marine Le Pen leads David Lisnard by 25 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.interieur.gouv.fr/). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Resolution source:
www.interieur.gouv.fr/
Closes:
19 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 40% means about 40¢ a share and roughly 2.5x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Next French Presidential Election"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 21:49 UTC, Marine Le Pen at 40%, then David Lisnard at 16% and Édouard Philippe at 12%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Marine Le Pen: unchanged in 24 hours, down 3 pts in 7 days and down 5 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:49 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 19 April 2027 (19 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC, in about 167 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.interieur.gouv.fr/ as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$164.2M in total and $943k in the last 24 hours, with about $4.0M in open positions (open interest) and $18.0M of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:49 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Next French Presidential Election". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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