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Weekly roundup · 5 Oct to 11 Oct 2026

Prediction markets: the week of 5 Oct to 11 Oct 2026

Week of Monday 5 Oct to 11 Oct 2026 (UTC). Archived roundup, prices at the end of the week.

In short

Prediction markets in the week of 5 Oct to 11 Oct 2026: the biggest move among the most traded Polymarket questions was "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?", where "October 31" went from 63% to 78%. 12 big markets settled, the most traded being "Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?" (No). 4 new markets passed $500k traded.
Quotable
  • "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?": "October 31" moved from 63% to 78% on Polymarket in the week of 5 Oct to 11 Oct 2026.
  • "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?": "March 31" moved from 72% to 65% on Polymarket in the week of 5 Oct to 11 Oct 2026.
  • "What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?": "↓ 70,000" moved from 30% to 36% on Polymarket in the week of 5 Oct to 11 Oct 2026.
  • "Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?" settled No ($3.4M traded).
  • "Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" settled No ($2.7M traded).

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/week/2026-w41”, prices as of 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC. How the numbers work.

Biggest moves

The favourite of each of the 40 most traded big questions, start of week to end of week, in percentage points.

What resolved

New big markets

Markets created this week with over $500k traded
QuestionFavourite24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes94%up 3
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?No Hormuz Agreement96%up 5
US imports Russian diesel by...?November 3055%up 6
Plague pandemic in 2026?Yes2%0

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FAQ

What moved most in prediction markets in the week of 5 Oct to 11 Oct 2026?

"US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?": "October 31" 63% to 78%; "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?": "March 31" 72% to 65%; "What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?": "↓ 70,000" 30% to 36%.

What resolved?

"Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?": No; "Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?": No; "Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?": Yes; "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?": Yes.

How is this roundup made?

From Polymarket's public data. Moves compare each big question's favourite at the start and end of the week (Monday 00:00 UTC to Monday 00:00 UTC) from its daily price history; results are the most traded markets that closed and settled during the week, single games left out.

Past weeks

Also: prediction market stats, Polymarket odds by subject, big questions.

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