PredictRips deals packs of 3 live Polymarket markets. Odds shown before you pay. First pack free.How it works
World
US imports Russian diesel by...?
67%chanceup 1 pt
- Vol$857k
- 24h$30k
- Liquidity$77k
- Open interest$87k
- Closesin 149d
- March 31
- January 31
- December 31
- November 30
In short
- March 31, the favourite in "US imports Russian diesel by", trades at 67% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 21:33 UTC).
- 24-hour move: up 1 pt; 7 days: unchanged; 30 days: unchanged.
- Traded: $857k in total, $30k in 24 hours; open interest $87k; liquidity $77k.
- Listed to close on 1 April 2027; bid-ask spread on March 31 2¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 67% | up 1 | 1.49 | -203 | ||
| January 31 | 66% | 0 | 1.53 | -190 | ||
| December 31 | 62% | down 1 | 1.63 | -160 | ||
| November 30 | 56% | up 2 | 1.77 | -130 | ||
| November 15 | 38% | down 2 | 2.7 | +167 | ||
| November 2 | 2% | up 1 | 49 | +4778 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
November 1538%
November 3056%
November 22%
Timeline of big moves
· March 31 down 6 pts (71% to 65%)
· March 31 up 25 pts (49% to 74%)
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
How it resolves
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Closes:
- 1 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 67% means about 67¢ a share and roughly 1.49x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
Your first pack is free
Rip a pack of live politics markets
Every pack holds 3 live prediction markets. Odds and pack value are shown before you pay. Hold to the result or cash out at the live price.
FAQ
What are the odds on "US imports Russian diesel by...?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 21:33 UTC, March 31 at 67%, then January 31 at 66% and December 31 at 62%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
March 31: up 1 pt in 24 hours, unchanged in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:33 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 April 2027 (1 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC, in about 149 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$857k in total and $30k in the last 24 hours, with about $87k in open positions (open interest) and $77k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:33 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "US imports Russian diesel by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
Related markets
- Netanyahu out by...? · June 30, 2027 44%
- Venezuela leader end of 2026? · Nicolás Maduro 85%
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? · Yes 7%
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes 18%
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? · March 31 66%
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes 2%
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? · November 1 99%
- Iran leader end of 2026? · Mojtaba Khamenei 86%
- All geopolitics odds
- All big questions