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Weekly roundup · 26 Oct to 1 Nov 2026
Prediction markets: the week of 26 Oct to 1 Nov 2026
In short
- "Netanyahu out by...?": "June 30, 2027" moved from 72% to 43% on Polymarket in the week of 26 Oct to 1 Nov 2026.
- "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?": "October 31" moved from 75% to 98% on Polymarket in the week of 26 Oct to 1 Nov 2026.
- "What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?": "↓ 2,000" moved from 32% to 45% on Polymarket in the week of 26 Oct to 1 Nov 2026.
- "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" settled No ($62.2M traded).
- "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" settled Yes ($48.5M traded).
Biggest moves
Netanyahu out by...?
June 30, 202772% → 43% down 29 pts
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 3175% → 98% up 23 pts
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
↓ 2,00032% → 45% up 13 pts
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
↓ 70,00035% → 48% up 13 pts
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 3157% → 63% up 6 pts
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance44% → 39% down 5 pts
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro76% → 81% up 5 pts
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep67% → 71% up 4 pts
MLS Cup Winner 2026
Nashville SC18% → 22% up 4 pts
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen46% → 42% down 4 pts
What resolved
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes
- Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No
- Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes
- Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes
- Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No
- Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes
New big markets
| Question | Favourite | 24h | Traded | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) | None32% | up 7 | 3 Nov 2026 | |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in November? | ↓ 77,50096% | up 1 | 1 Dec 2026 |
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FAQ
What moved most in prediction markets in the week of 26 Oct to 1 Nov 2026?
"Netanyahu out by...?": "June 30, 2027" 72% to 43%; "US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?": "October 31" 75% to 98%; "What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?": "↓ 2,000" 32% to 45%.
What resolved?
"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?": No; "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?": Yes; "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?": Yes; "Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?": No.
How is this roundup made?
From Polymarket's public data. Moves compare each big question's favourite at the start and end of the week (Monday 00:00 UTC to Monday 00:00 UTC) from its daily price history; results are the most traded markets that closed and settled during the week, single games left out.