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World
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
15%chanceup 2 pts
- Vol$13.1M
- 24h$46k
- Liquidity$149k
- Open interest$993k
- Closesin 61d
- December 31
- November 30
- November 15
In short
- December 31, the favourite in "NATO x Russia military clash by", trades at 15% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 21:50 UTC).
- 24-hour move: up 2 pts; 7 days: down 2 pts; 30 days: down 7 pts.
- Traded: $13.1M in total, $46k in 24 hours; open interest $993k; liquidity $149k.
- Listed to close on 3 January 2027; bid-ask spread on December 31 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 15% | up 2 | 6.9 | +590 | ||
| November 30 | 6% | n/a | 18 | +1718 | ||
| November 15 | 2% | 0 | 54 | +5305 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
December 3115%
Timeline of big moves
· December 31 down 20 pts (38% to 18%)
· December 31 up 9 pts (27% to 36%)
· December 31 up 5 pts (23% to 28%)
· December 31 up 6 pts (21% to 27%)
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Closes:
- 3 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 15% means about 15¢ a share and roughly 6.9x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "NATO x Russia military clash by...?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 21:50 UTC, December 31 at 15%, then November 30 at 6% and November 15 at 2%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
December 31: up 2 pts in 24 hours, down 2 pts in 7 days and down 7 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:50 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 3 January 2027 (3 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 61 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$13.1M in total and $46k in the last 24 hours, with about $993k in open positions (open interest) and $149k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:50 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "NATO x Russia military clash by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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