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Weekly roundup · 12 Oct to 18 Oct 2026
Prediction markets: the week of 12 Oct to 18 Oct 2026
In short
- "When will Bitcoin hit $150k?": "by December 31, 2027" moved from 32% to 21% on Polymarket in the week of 12 Oct to 18 Oct 2026.
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?": "March 31" moved from 65% to 57% on Polymarket in the week of 12 Oct to 18 Oct 2026.
- "Next French Presidential Election": "Marine Le Pen" moved from 39% to 46% on Polymarket in the week of 12 Oct to 18 Oct 2026.
- "Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?" settled Yes ($6.8M traded).
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?" settled No ($3.7M traded).
Biggest moves
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
by December 31, 202732% → 21% down 11 pts
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 3165% → 57% down 8 pts
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen39% → 46% up 6 pts
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
↓ 2,00026% → 30% up 4 pts
Pro Football: 2027 Champion
San Francisco 49ers10% → 13% up 3 pts
What resolved
- Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?Yes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Yes
- US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes
- Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?Yes
- US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?Yes
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?No
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?No
New big markets
| Question | Favourite | 24h | Traded | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France declares state of emergency by...? | December 317% | 0 | 1 Jan 2027 | |
| Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms? | Oil ≥ $85; D Senate76% | up 5 | 4 Nov 2026 | |
| Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms? | Oil < $80; D Senate0.9% | up 1 | 4 Nov 2026 | |
| Next Press Secretary announced by...? | December 3164% | 0 | 1 Jan 2027 |
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FAQ
What moved most in prediction markets in the week of 12 Oct to 18 Oct 2026?
"When will Bitcoin hit $150k?": "by December 31, 2027" 32% to 21%; "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?": "March 31" 65% to 57%; "Next French Presidential Election": "Marine Le Pen" 39% to 46%.
What resolved?
"Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?": Yes; "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?": No; "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?": Yes; "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?": Yes.
How is this roundup made?
From Polymarket's public data. Moves compare each big question's favourite at the start and end of the week (Monday 00:00 UTC to Monday 00:00 UTC) from its daily price history; results are the most traded markets that closed and settled during the week, single games left out.