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World
France declares state of emergency by...?
8%chancedown 1 pt
- Vol$2.7M
- 24h$7k
- Liquidity$181k
- Open interest$134k
- Closesin 60d
In short
- Yes on "France declares state of emergency by" trades at 8% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: down 10 pts; 30 days: unchanged.
- Traded: $2.7M in total, $7k in 24 hours; open interest $134k; liquidity $181k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 1¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | down 1 | 13 | +1233 | ||
| No | 93% | up 1 | 1.08 | -1233 |
Timeline of big moves
· Yes down 8 pts (17% to 9%)
· Yes up 8 pts (9% to 17%)
· Yes down 6 pts (16% to 9%)
· Yes down 10 pts (20% to 11%)
· Yes up 7 pts (13% to 20%)
· Yes down 15 pts (23% to 9%)
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
- Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 60 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
- At 8% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 8% means about 8¢ a share and roughly 13x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "France declares state of emergency by...?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 8%, which is decimal odds of 13 or American +1233. A Yes share costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: down 1 pt in 24 hours, down 10 pts in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$2.7M in total and $7k in the last 24 hours, with about $134k in open positions (open interest) and $181k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "France declares state of emergency by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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