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Elections

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Democratic

66%chancen/a24h

  • Vol$2.5M
  • 24h$1k
  • Liquidity$636k
  • Open interest$886k
  • Closesin 737d
  • Democratic
  • Republican
Democratic chance over 30 days: from 65% to 66%.

In short

Democratic leads at 66%, ahead of Republican (35%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 14:14 UTC. Democratic is up 1 pt over 30 days. 2 outcomes are priced and $2.5M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 8 November 2028.
Key numbers
  • Democratic, the favourite in "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election", trades at 66% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 14:14 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: up 1 pt; 30 days: up 1 pt.
  • Traded: $2.5M in total, $1k in 24 hours; open interest $886k; liquidity $636k.
  • Listed to close on 8 November 2028; bid-ask spread on Democratic 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 14:14 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Democratic66%n/a1.53-190
Republican35%n/a2.9+190

What would move this market

  • Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
  • Democratic leads Republican by 31 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Closes:
8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 66% means about 66¢ a share and roughly 1.53x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 14:14 UTC, Democratic at 66%, then Republican at 35%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Democratic: unchanged in 24 hours, up 1 pt in 7 days and up 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 14:14 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 8 November 2028 (8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC, in about 737 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$2.5M in total and $1k in the last 24 hours, with about $886k in open positions (open interest) and $636k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 14:14 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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