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Crypto

Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: $100M

98%chancen/a24h

  • Vol$3.8M
  • 24h$10k
  • Liquidity$409k
  • Open interest$1.2M
  • Closesin 425d
  • $100M
  • $200M
  • $300M
  • $500M
$100M chance over 30 days: from 100% to 98%.

In short

Prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 11:07 UTC: $100M 98%, $200M 95%, $300M 93%. Each outcome is priced on its own (a date or price level can't be ranked like candidates); $3.8M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2028.
Key numbers
  • $100M, the favourite in "Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch", trades at 98% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 11:07 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 1 pt; 30 days: down 2 pts.
  • Traded: $3.8M in total, $10k in 24 hours; open interest $1.2M; liquidity $409k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2028; bid-ask spread on $100M under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/variational-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 11:07 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
$100M98%n/a1.02-4778
$200M95%up 21.05-1900
$300M93%down 11.07-1339
$500M88%up 11.14-733
$800M73%n/a1.38-264
$1B56%n/a1.80-125
$2B28%down 13.6+264
$3B14%n/a7.2+617
$4B6%018+1654
$5B4%025+2369

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • $200M95%

    up 2 pts in 24h

  • $2B28%

    down 1 pt in 24h

  • $300M93%

    down 1 pt in 24h

What would move this market

  • The spot price first: every move toward or away from a level reprices it within minutes. Then ETF flows, rate decisions and inflation prints, regulation and big holders buying or selling.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Closes:
1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 98% means about 98¢ a share and roughly 1.02x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 11:07 UTC, $100M at 98%, then $200M at 95% and $300M at 93%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

$100M: unchanged in 24 hours, down 1 pt in 7 days and down 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 11:07 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2028 (1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC, in about 425 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$3.8M in total and $10k in the last 24 hours, with about $1.2M in open positions (open interest) and $409k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 11:07 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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