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Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Avengers: Doomsday

53%chancedown 1 pt24h

  • Vol$2.6M
  • 24h$8k
  • Liquidity$119k
  • Open interest$169k
  • Closesin 90d
  • Avengers: Doomsday
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day
  • The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
  • Dune: Messiah
Avengers: Doomsday chance over 30 days: from 40% to 53%.

In short

Avengers: Doomsday leads at 53%, ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day (49%) and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (0.1%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:15 UTC. Avengers: Doomsday is up 13 pts over 30 days. 2 outcomes are priced and $2.6M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 February 2027.
Key numbers
  • Avengers: Doomsday, the favourite in "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026", trades at 53% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:15 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: down 14 pts; 30 days: up 13 pts.
  • Traded: $2.6M in total, $8k in 24 hours; open interest $169k; liquidity $119k.
  • Listed to close on 1 February 2027; bid-ask spread on Avengers: Doomsday 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:15 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Avengers: Doomsday53%down 11.90-111
Spider-Man: Brand New Day49%up 22.1+106

2 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day49%

    up 2 pts in 24h

  • Avengers: Doomsday53%

    down 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Avengers: Doomsday moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Avengers: Doomsday down 8 pts (56% to 48%)

  2. · Avengers: Doomsday down 7 pts (60% to 52%)

  3. · Avengers: Doomsday up 7 pts (55% to 62%)

  4. · Avengers: Doomsday down 7 pts (62% to 55%)

  5. · Avengers: Doomsday down 10 pts (66% to 56%)

  6. · Avengers: Doomsday up 11 pts (55% to 66%)

What would move this market

  • Nominations, release dates, chart and box-office numbers, and announcements by the people involved.
  • A close race: Avengers: Doomsday leads Spider-Man: Brand New Day by 4 points, so a single strong news day could flip the order.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source:
www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026
Closes:
1 Feb 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 53% means about 53¢ a share and roughly 1.90x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 20:15 UTC, Avengers: Doomsday at 53%, then Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 49% and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping at 0.1%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Avengers: Doomsday: down 1 pt in 24 hours, down 14 pts in 7 days and up 13 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:15 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 February 2027 (1 Feb 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 90 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$2.6M in total and $8k in the last 24 hours, with about $169k in open positions (open interest) and $119k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:15 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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