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Elon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: 380-399

12%chancedown 1 pt24h

  • Vol$817k
  • 24h$244k
  • Liquidity$172k
  • Open interest$130k
  • Closesin 4d
  • 380-399
  • 320-339
  • 340-359
  • 360-379
380-399 chance over 30 days: from 11% to 12%.

In short

380-399 leads at 12%, ahead of 320-339 (12%) and 340-359 (12%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:45 UTC. 18 outcomes are priced and $817k has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 6 November 2026.
Key numbers
  • 380-399, the favourite in "Elon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026", trades at 12% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 22:45 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: up 1 pt; 30 days: unchanged.
  • Traded: $817k in total, $244k in 24 hours; open interest $130k; liquidity $172k.
  • Listed to close on 6 November 2026; bid-ask spread on 380-399 under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-30-november-6-2026”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:45 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
380-39912%down 18.3+730
320-33912%up 58.7+770
340-35912%up 18.7+770
360-37912%n/a8.7+770
400-41910%down 210+931
300-31910%up 411+953
280-2997%up 514+1279
420-4396%down 316+1475
260-2796%up 418+1702
440-4594%down 426+2532
240-2593%up 234+3348
460-4792%down 341+3982
220-2392%up 254+5305
480-4992%down 259+5782
200-2191%up 174+7307
500-5190.8%down 2133+13233
580+0.5%down 2182+18082
520-5390.5%down 2200+19900

5 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • 320-33912%

    up 5 pts in 24h

  • 280-2997%

    up 5 pts in 24h

  • 260-2796%

    up 4 pts in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when 380-399 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · 380-399 up 5 pts (8% to 13%)

  2. · 380-399 down 7 pts (11% to 4%)

What would move this market

  • Nominations, release dates, chart and box-office numbers, and announcements by the people involved.
  • A close race: 380-399 leads 320-339 by 1 points, so a single strong news day could flip the order.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (x.com/elonmusk). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

In the news

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 30 12:00 PM ET to November 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source:
x.com/elonmusk
Closes:
6 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 12% means about 12¢ a share and roughly 8.3x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Elon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 22:45 UTC, 380-399 at 12%, then 320-339 at 12% and 340-359 at 12%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

380-399: down 1 pt in 24 hours, up 1 pt in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:45 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 6 November 2026 (6 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC, in about 4 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with x.com/elonmusk as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$817k in total and $244k in the last 24 hours, with about $130k in open positions (open interest) and $172k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 22:45 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Elon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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