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Economy
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
50%chancen/a
- Vol$2.4M
- 24h$28k
- Liquidity$663k
- Open interest$1.1M
- Closesin 60d
- ↑ $4,500
- ↓ $3,500
- ↑ $5,000
- ↓ $3,000
In short
- ↑ $4,500, the favourite in "What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December", trades at 50% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 17:06 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: unchanged; 30 days: unchanged.
- Traded: $2.4M in total, $28k in 24 hours; open interest $1.1M; liquidity $663k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $4,500 | 50% | n/a | 2.0 | +102 | ||
| ↓ $3,500 | 21% | down 2 | 4.8 | +376 | ||
| ↑ $5,000 | 10% | up 6 | 10 | +942 | ||
| ↓ $3,000 | 5% | 0 | 22 | +2051 | ||
| ↓ $2,500 | 2% | n/a | 43 | +4248 | ||
| ↑ $6,000 | 2% | n/a | 49 | +4778 | ||
| ↑ $7,000 | 2% | n/a | 54 | +5305 | ||
| ↑ $8,000 | 2% | n/a | 59 | +5782 | ||
| ↑ $10,000 | 2% | 0 | 65 | +6352 | ||
| ↑ $12,000 | 1% | 0 | 80 | +7900 | ||
| ↑ $15,000 | 1% | 0 | 83 | +8233 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
↑ $5,00010%
↓ $3,50021%
What would move this market
- Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
- ↑ $4,500 leads ↓ $3,500 by 29 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 50% means about 50¢ a share and roughly 2.0x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
Who is favoured in "What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December"?
At 1 Nov 2026, 17:06 UTC, ↑ $4,500 at 50%, then ↓ $3,500 at 21% and ↑ $5,000 at 10%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
↑ $4,500: unchanged in 24 hours, unchanged in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:06 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$2.4M in total and $28k in the last 24 hours, with about $1.1M in open positions (open interest) and $663k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:06 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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