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Economy
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
68%chancedown 2 pts
- Vol$1.9M
- 24h$273
- Liquidity$342k
- Open interest$121k
- Closesin 59d
- ↑ 4.25%
- ↓ 3.25%
- ↓ 1.5%
- ↑ 5.5%
In short
- ↑ 4.25%, the favourite in "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027", trades at 68% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 13:19 UTC).
- 24-hour move: down 2 pts; 7 days: down 9 pts; 30 days: down 5 pts.
- Traded: $1.9M in total, $273 in 24 hours; open interest $121k; liquidity $342k.
- Listed to close on 31 December 2026; bid-ask spread on ↑ 4.25% under 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 4.25% | 68% | down 2 | 1.47 | -213 | ||
| ↓ 3.25% | 2% | 0 | 41 | +3982 | ||
| ↓ 1.5% | 2% | 0 | 42 | +4067 | ||
| ↑ 5.5% | 2% | n/a | 43 | +4155 | ||
| ↑ 4.5% | 2% | n/a | 43 | +4248 | ||
| ↓ 0.25% | 2% | n/a | 43 | +4248 | ||
| ↑ 5.0% | 2% | 0 | 45 | +4445 | ||
| ↓ 2.25% | 2% | 0 | 45 | +4445 | ||
| ↓ 2.0% | 2% | 0 | 48 | +4662 | ||
| ↑ 5.25% | 2% | n/a | 48 | +4662 | ||
| ↓ 0.5% | 2% | n/a | 50 | +4900 | ||
| ↓ 0% | 2% | 0 | 50 | +4900 | ||
| ↓ 2.75% | 2% | 0 | 51 | +5028 | ||
| ↓ 0.75% | 2% | 0 | 54 | +5305 | ||
| ↓ 1.25% | 2% | n/a | 54 | +5305 | ||
| ↓ 3.0% | 2% | 0 | 56 | +5456 | ||
| ↑ 4.75% | 2% | n/a | 56 | +5456 | ||
| ↓ 2.5% | 2% | 0 | 61 | +5961 | ||
| ↓ 1.75% | 1% | n/a | 71 | +7043 | ||
| ↓ 1.0% | 1% | 0 | 80 | +7900 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
↑ 4.25%68%
Timeline of big moves
· ↑ 4.25% down 8 pts (79% to 70%)
· ↑ 4.25% up 5 pts (74% to 79%)
· ↑ 4.25% up 5 pts (72% to 77%)
· ↑ 4.25% down 7 pts (80% to 74%)
· ↑ 4.25% down 5 pts (85% to 80%)
· ↑ 4.25% up 4 pts (79% to 83%)
What would move this market
- Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
- Resolution source:
- www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
- Closes:
- 31 Dec 2026, 17:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 68% means about 68¢ a share and roughly 1.47x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 13:19 UTC, ↑ 4.25% at 68%, then ↓ 3.25% at 2% and ↓ 1.5% at 2%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
↑ 4.25%: down 2 pts in 24 hours, down 9 pts in 7 days and down 5 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:19 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 31 December 2026 (31 Dec 2026, 17:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$1.9M in total and $273 in the last 24 hours, with about $121k in open positions (open interest) and $342k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:19 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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