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Economy
US recession by end of 2026?
6%chancen/a
- Vol$2.4M
- 24h$487
- Liquidity$49k
- Open interest$606k
- Closesin 58d
In short
- Yes on "US recession by end of 2026" trades at 6% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 16:41 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 2 pts; 30 days: down 2 pts.
- Traded: $2.4M in total, $487 in 24 hours; open interest $606k; liquidity $49k.
- Listed to close on 31 December 2026; bid-ask spread on Yes 1¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | n/a | 18 | +1718 | ||
| No | 95% | n/a | 1.06 | -1718 |
What would move this market
- Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
- Time. It closes on 31 December 2026 (about 58 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
- At 6% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
- Thin book: about $49k of liquidity, so one large order can move the price on its own. Treat small moves with care.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
- Resolution source:
- www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
- Closes:
- 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 6% means about 6¢ a share and roughly 18x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "US recession by end of 2026?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 16:41 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 6%, which is decimal odds of 18 or American +1718. A Yes share costs 6¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: unchanged in 24 hours, down 2 pts in 7 days and down 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 16:41 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 31 December 2026 (31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC, in about 58 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$2.4M in total and $487 in the last 24 hours, with about $606k in open positions (open interest) and $49k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 16:41 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "US recession by end of 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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