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Politics

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Chance of Yes

5%chancedown 1 pt24h

  • Vol$2.0M
  • 24h$34k
  • Liquidity$76k
  • Open interest$179k
  • Closesin 60d
Price history
Yes chance over 30 days: from 4% to 5%.

In short

Prediction markets give Yes a 5% chance (down 1 pt in 24 hours), as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:03 UTC. $2.0M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Yes on "Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by" trades at 5% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 10:03 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: down 3 pts; 30 days: unchanged.
  • Traded: $2.0M in total, $34k in 24 hours; open interest $179k; liquidity $76k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/mohammed-bin-salman-out-as-leader-of-saudi-arabia-by”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:03 UTC. How the numbers work.

The odds

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Yes5%down 121+2028
No95%up 11.05-2028

What would move this market

  • Votes, court rulings, filings and official announcements, and reporting by the outlets the rules name.
  • Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 60 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
  • At 5% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 5% means about 5¢ a share and roughly 21x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 10:03 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 5%, which is decimal odds of 21 or American +2028. A Yes share costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

How have the odds moved?

Yes: down 1 pt in 24 hours, down 3 pts in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:03 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$2.0M in total and $34k in the last 24 hours, with about $179k in open positions (open interest) and $76k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:03 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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