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World

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Chance of Yes

4%chance024h

  • Vol$7.9M
  • 24h$14k
  • Liquidity$61k
  • Open interest$196k
  • Closesin 59d
Price history
Yes chance over 30 days: from 3% to 4%.

In short

Prediction markets give Yes a 4% chance (unchanged in 24 hours), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:41 UTC. Over 30 days it is up 1 pt. $7.9M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • Yes on "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by" trades at 4% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 21:41 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: up 1 pt; 30 days: up 1 pt.
  • Traded: $7.9M in total, $14k in 24 hours; open interest $196k; liquidity $61k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes under 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:41 UTC. How the numbers work.

The odds

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Yes4%026+2532
No96%01.04-2532

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 59 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
  • At 4% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.

In the news

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 4% means about 4¢ a share and roughly 26x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 21:41 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 4%, which is decimal odds of 26 or American +2532. A Yes share costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

How have the odds moved?

Yes: unchanged in 24 hours, up 1 pt in 7 days and up 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:41 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$7.9M in total and $14k in the last 24 hours, with about $196k in open positions (open interest) and $61k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:41 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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