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Elections
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
26%chanceup 2 pts
- Vol$4.6M
- 24h$80k
- Liquidity$283k
- Open interest$1.0M
- Closesin 2d
In short
- Yes on "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026" trades at 26% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 13:34 UTC).
- 24-hour move: up 2 pts; 7 days: up 1 pt; 30 days: down 5 pts.
- Traded: $4.6M in total, $80k in 24 hours; open interest $1.0M; liquidity $283k.
- Listed to close on 4 November 2026; bid-ask spread on Yes 1¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 26% | up 2 | 3.9 | +292 | ||
| No | 75% | down 2 | 1.34 | -292 |
Timeline of big moves
· Yes up 5 pts (22% to 27%)
· Yes up 6 pts (22% to 28%)
What would move this market
- Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
In the news
- Strangers are begging the Binance hacker for bitcoin, one ‘help me bro’ at a time · CoinDesk, 2 Nov 2026, 05:18 UTC
How it resolves
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Resolution source:
- 6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
- Closes:
- 4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 26% means about 26¢ a share and roughly 3.9x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 13:34 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 26%, which is decimal odds of 3.9 or American +292. A Yes share costs 26¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: up 2 pts in 24 hours, up 1 pt in 7 days and down 5 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:34 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 4 November 2026 (4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC, in about 2 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with 6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$4.6M in total and $80k in the last 24 hours, with about $1.0M in open positions (open interest) and $283k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:34 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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