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World

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: None before 2027

62%chancedown 1 pt24h

  • Vol$2.2M
  • 24h$33k
  • Liquidity$686k
  • Open interest$84k
  • Closesin 59d
  • None before 2027
  • Netanyahu - Israel PM
  • Sánchez - Spanish PM
  • Lecornu - France PM
None before 2027 chance over 30 days: from 28% to 62%.

In short

None before 2027 leads at 62%, ahead of Netanyahu - Israel PM (15%) and Sánchez - Spanish PM (7%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:43 UTC. None before 2027 is up 34 pts over 30 days. 13 outcomes are priced and $2.2M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • None before 2027, the favourite in "Next leader out of power before 2027", trades at 62% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:43 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: up 18 pts; 30 days: up 34 pts.
  • Traded: $2.2M in total, $33k in 24 hours; open interest $84k; liquidity $686k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on None before 2027 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-starmer-or-petro”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:43 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
None before 202762%down 11.63-160
Netanyahu - Israel PM15%up 26.7+567
Sánchez - Spanish PM7%up 215+1371
Lecornu - France PM3%down 129+2799
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President1%091+8991
Abbas - President of Palestine1%down 191+8991
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP0.9%n/a105+10426
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President0.9%down 1118+11665
Trump - USA President0.8%n/a133+13233
Putin - Russia President0.7%n/a154+15285
Merz - German Chancellor0.7%0154+15285
Erdoğan - Türkiye President0.6%0167+16567
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President0.6%0167+16567

9 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Sánchez - Spanish PM7%

    up 2 pts in 24h

  • Netanyahu - Israel PM15%

    up 2 pts in 24h

  • None before 202762%

    down 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when None before 2027 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · None before 2027 down 8 pts (70% to 62%)

  2. · None before 2027 up 8 pts (62% to 70%)

  3. · None before 2027 down 4 pts (69% to 65%)

  4. · None before 2027 up 4 pts (65% to 69%)

  5. · None before 2027 down 12 pts (65% to 53%)

  6. · None before 2027 up 28 pts (39% to 67%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • None before 2027 leads Netanyahu - Israel PM by 47 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 62% means about 62¢ a share and roughly 1.63x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Next leader out of power before 2027"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 20:43 UTC, None before 2027 at 62%, then Netanyahu - Israel PM at 15% and Sánchez - Spanish PM at 7%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

None before 2027: down 1 pt in 24 hours, up 18 pts in 7 days and up 34 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:43 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$2.2M in total and $33k in the last 24 hours, with about $84k in open positions (open interest) and $686k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:43 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Next leader out of power before 2027?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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