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Crypto
Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?
82%chanceup 7 pts
- Vol$4.1M
- 24h$4k
- Liquidity$217k
- Open interest$833k
- Closesin 60d
- $150M
- $300M
- $500M
- $800M
In short
- $150M, the favourite in "Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch", trades at 82% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC).
- 24-hour move: up 7 pts; 7 days: up 8 pts; 30 days: up 14 pts.
- Traded: $4.1M in total, $4k in 24 hours; open interest $833k; liquidity $217k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on $150M 2¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150M | 82% | up 7 | 1.22 | -456 | ||
| $300M | 33% | down 2 | 3.0 | +203 | ||
| $500M | 15% | n/a | 6.7 | +567 | ||
| $800M | 7% | 0 | 15 | +1438 | ||
| $1B | 5% | 0 | 22 | +2122 | ||
| $3B | 2% | 0 | 42 | +4067 | ||
| $2B | 2% | n/a | 56 | +5456 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
$150M82%
$300M33%
$800M7%
Timeline of big moves
· $150M up 8 pts (74% to 82%)
· $150M down 5 pts (78% to 73%)
· $150M down 6 pts (81% to 75%)
· $150M up 9 pts (73% to 83%)
· $150M up 11 pts (66% to 77%)
· $150M up 5 pts (63% to 68%)
What would move this market
- The spot price first: every move toward or away from a level reprices it within minutes. Then ETF flows, rate decisions and inflation prints, regulation and big holders buying or selling.
- What counts in the end: the source the rules name (x.com/extendedapp). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- Resolution source:
- x.com/extendedapp
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 82% means about 82¢ a share and roughly 1.22x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC, $150M at 82%, then $300M at 33% and $500M at 15%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
$150M: up 7 pts in 24 hours, up 8 pts in 7 days and up 14 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with x.com/extendedapp as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$4.1M in total and $4k in the last 24 hours, with about $833k in open positions (open interest) and $217k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 10:04 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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