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Economy
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
96%chanceup 2 pts
- Vol$2.5M
- 24h$17k
- Liquidity$405k
- Open interest$121k
- Closesin 60d
- No IPO by December 31, 2026
- 1.5T+
- <500B
- 750B–1T
In short
- No IPO by December 31, 2026, the favourite in "OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap", trades at 96% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 17:32 UTC).
- 24-hour move: up 2 pts; 7 days: unchanged; 30 days: down 1 pt.
- Traded: $2.5M in total, $17k in 24 hours; open interest $121k; liquidity $405k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on No IPO by December 31, 2026 under 1¢.
Every outcome, most likely first
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 96% | up 2 | 1.04 | -2432 | ||
| 1.5T+ | 1% | n/a | 95 | +9424 | ||
| <500B | 0.9% | 0 | 118 | +11665 | ||
| 750B–1T | 0.6% | 0 | 167 | +16567 | ||
| 1T–1.25T | 0.5% | n/a | 200 | +19900 |
Biggest moves in 24 hours
No IPO by December 31, 202696%
What would move this market
- Inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs reports, Fed officials' speeches, the FOMC statement and dot plot, and what bond and futures markets price for rates.
- No IPO by December 31, 2026 leads 1.5T+ by 95 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
How it resolves
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 96% means about 96¢ a share and roughly 1.04x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
Who is favoured in "OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap"?
At 1 Nov 2026, 17:32 UTC, No IPO by December 31, 2026 at 96%, then 1.5T+ at 1% and <500B at 0.9%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How have the odds moved?
No IPO by December 31, 2026: up 2 pts in 24 hours, unchanged in 7 days and down 1 pt in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:32 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$2.5M in total and $17k in the last 24 hours, with about $121k in open positions (open interest) and $405k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 17:32 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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