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Elections · Sweden

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Magdalena Andersson

70%chancedown 1 pt24h

  • Vol$10.7M
  • 24h$12k
  • Liquidity$881k
  • Open interest$867k
  • Closesin 242d
  • Magdalena Andersson
  • Ulf Kristersson
  • Ebba Busch
  • Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist
Magdalena Andersson chance over 30 days: from 78% to 70%.

In short

Magdalena Andersson leads at 70%, ahead of Ulf Kristersson (25%) and Ebba Busch (2%), as of 1 Nov 2026, 02:16 UTC. Magdalena Andersson is down 8 pts over 30 days. 4 outcomes are priced and $10.7M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 1 July 2027.
Key numbers
  • Magdalena Andersson, the favourite in "Next Prime Minister of Sweden", trades at 70% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 02:16 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 2 pts; 7 days: down 6 pts; 30 days: down 8 pts.
  • Traded: $10.7M in total, $12k in 24 hours; open interest $867k; liquidity $881k.
  • Listed to close on 1 July 2027; bid-ask spread on Magdalena Andersson 2¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/next-prime-minister-of-sweden”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 02:16 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Magdalena Andersson70%down 11.43-233
Ulf Kristersson25%up 24.0+303
Ebba Busch2%down 145+4445
Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist2%061+5961

6 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Ulf Kristersson25%

    up 2 pts in 24h

  • Magdalena Andersson70%

    down 1 pt in 24h

  • Ebba Busch2%

    down 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Magdalena Andersson moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Magdalena Andersson up 5 pts (72% to 76%)

  2. · Magdalena Andersson down 7 pts (76% to 69%)

What would move this market

  • Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
  • Magdalena Andersson leads Ulf Kristersson by 45 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Closes:
1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 70% means about 70¢ a share and roughly 1.43x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Next Prime Minister of Sweden"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 02:16 UTC, Magdalena Andersson at 70%, then Ulf Kristersson at 25% and Ebba Busch at 2%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Magdalena Andersson: down 2 pts in 24 hours, down 6 pts in 7 days and down 8 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 02:16 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 July 2027 (1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC, in about 242 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$10.7M in total and $12k in the last 24 hours, with about $867k in open positions (open interest) and $881k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 02:16 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Next Prime Minister of Sweden". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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