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Tech

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Google

54%chancedown 2 pts24h

  • Vol$3.8M
  • 24h$54k
  • Liquidity$1.5M
  • Open interest$295k
  • Closesin 60d
  • Google
  • Anthropic
  • OpenAI
  • Meta
Google chance over 30 days: from 38% to 54%.

In short

Google leads at 54%, ahead of Anthropic (37%) and OpenAI (5%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 03:23 UTC. Google is up 16 pts over 30 days. 5 outcomes are priced and $3.8M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 31 December 2026.
Key numbers
  • Google, the favourite in "Which company has best AI model end of 2026", trades at 54% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 03:23 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 2 pts; 7 days: up 20 pts; 30 days: up 16 pts.
  • Traded: $3.8M in total, $54k in 24 hours; open interest $295k; liquidity $1.5M.
  • Listed to close on 31 December 2026; bid-ask spread on Google 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-2026”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 03:23 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Google54%down 21.87-115
Anthropic37%n/a2.7+174
OpenAI5%down 120+1900
Meta0.9%n/a105+10426
xAI0.9%0118+11665

10 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Google54%

    down 2 pts in 24h

  • OpenAI5%

    down 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Google moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Google down 6 pts (59% to 52%)

  2. · Google up 17 pts (35% to 52%)

  3. · Google down 7 pts (41% to 34%)

  4. · Google down 4 pts (45% to 41%)

  5. · Google up 5 pts (39% to 44%)

What would move this market

  • Launches, benchmark and leaderboard results, filings (an S-1 before an IPO), earnings and market caps, and regulators' decisions.
  • Google leads Anthropic by 17 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (lmarena.ai/). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

In the news

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolution source:
lmarena.ai/
Closes:
31 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 54% means about 54¢ a share and roughly 1.87x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Which company has best AI model end of 2026"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 03:23 UTC, Google at 54%, then Anthropic at 37% and OpenAI at 5%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Google: down 2 pts in 24 hours, up 20 pts in 7 days and up 16 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 03:23 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 31 December 2026 (31 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with lmarena.ai/ as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$3.8M in total and $54k in the last 24 hours, with about $295k in open positions (open interest) and $1.5M of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 03:23 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Which company has best AI model end of 2026?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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