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Politics

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: December 31, 2027

38%chancen/a24h

  • Vol$3.1M
  • 24h$15k
  • Liquidity$171k
  • Open interest$832k
  • Closesin 60d
  • December 31, 2027
  • June 30, 2027
  • March 31, 2027
  • December 31, 2026
December 31, 2027 chance over 30 days: from 31% to 38%.

In short

Prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 18:55 UTC: December 31, 2027 38%, June 30, 2027 25%, March 31, 2027 12%. Each outcome is priced on its own (a date or price level can't be ranked like candidates); $3.1M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 January 2027.
Key numbers
  • December 31, 2027, the favourite in "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by", trades at 38% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 18:55 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 2 pts; 30 days: up 7 pts.
  • Traded: $3.1M in total, $15k in 24 hours; open interest $832k; liquidity $171k.
  • Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on December 31, 2027 2¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 18:55 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
December 31, 202738%n/a2.6+163
June 30, 202725%n/a4.1+308
March 31, 202712%n/a8.7+770
December 31, 20264%028+2678
November 30, 20262%057+5614

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • November 30, 20262%

    0 in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when December 31, 2027 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · December 31, 2027 down 10 pts (40% to 30%)

  2. · December 31, 2027 down 10 pts (49% to 39%)

  3. · December 31, 2027 down 19 pts (64% to 45%)

  4. · December 31, 2027 up 24 pts (41% to 64%)

  5. · December 31, 2027 up 12 pts (32% to 43%)

  6. · December 31, 2027 up 7 pts (25% to 32%)

What would move this market

  • Votes, court rulings, filings and official announcements, and reporting by the outlets the rules name.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Closes:
1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 38% means about 38¢ a share and roughly 2.6x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 18:55 UTC, December 31, 2027 at 38%, then June 30, 2027 at 25% and March 31, 2027 at 12%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

December 31, 2027: unchanged in 24 hours, down 2 pts in 7 days and up 7 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 18:55 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 60 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$3.1M in total and $15k in the last 24 hours, with about $832k in open positions (open interest) and $171k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 18:55 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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