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Politics
Trump out as President before 2027?
4%chance0
- Vol$13.6M
- 24h$52k
- Liquidity$239k
- Open interest$3.7M
- Closesin 59d
In short
- Yes on "Trump out as President before 2027" trades at 4% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:42 UTC).
- 24-hour move: unchanged; 7 days: down 1 pt; 30 days: unchanged.
- Traded: $13.6M in total, $52k in 24 hours; open interest $3.7M; liquidity $239k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes under 1¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 0 | 28 | +2717 | ||
| No | 96% | 0 | 1.04 | -2717 |
What would move this market
- Votes, court rulings, filings and official announcements, and reporting by the outlets the rules name.
- Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 59 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
- At 4% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 4% means about 4¢ a share and roughly 28x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Trump out as President before 2027?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 20:42 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 4%, which is decimal odds of 28 or American +2717. A Yes share costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: unchanged in 24 hours, down 1 pt in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:42 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$13.6M in total and $52k in the last 24 hours, with about $3.7M in open positions (open interest) and $239k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:42 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Trump out as President before 2027?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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