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Elections

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: Mary Peltola

73%chancedown 2 pts24h

  • Vol$2.7M
  • 24h$263k
  • Liquidity$1.8M
  • Open interest$1.1M
  • Closesin 1d
  • Mary Peltola
  • Sen. Dan Sullivan
  • Ann Diener
  • Dustin Darden
Mary Peltola chance over 30 days: from 73% to 73%.

In short

Mary Peltola leads at 73%, ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan (28%) and Ann Diener (0.1%), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:17 UTC. 2 outcomes are priced and $2.7M has been traded on it on Polymarket; it is listed to close on 4 November 2026.
Key numbers
  • Mary Peltola, the favourite in "Alaska Senate Election Winner", trades at 73% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:17 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 2 pts; 7 days: down 2 pts; 30 days: unchanged.
  • Traded: $2.7M in total, $263k in 24 hours; open interest $1.1M; liquidity $1.8M.
  • Listed to close on 4 November 2026; bid-ask spread on Mary Peltola 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/alaska-senate-election-winner”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:17 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
Mary Peltola73%down 21.38-264
Sen. Dan Sullivan28%up 23.6+264

5 more outcomes are priced under 0.5% and not listed.

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • Mary Peltola73%

    down 2 pts in 24h

  • Sen. Dan Sullivan28%

    up 2 pts in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when Mary Peltola moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · Mary Peltola down 5 pts (75% to 70%)

What would move this market

  • Polls, candidate entries and withdrawals, endorsements, debates and fundraising reports; at the end, early-vote data and official results as they are counted.
  • Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan by 45 points. Flipping the order would take sustained news, not one headline.

In the news

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Closes:
4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 73% means about 73¢ a share and roughly 1.38x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary, how election odds work.

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FAQ

Who is favoured in "Alaska Senate Election Winner"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 20:17 UTC, Mary Peltola at 73%, then Sen. Dan Sullivan at 28% and Ann Diener at 0.1%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

Mary Peltola: down 2 pts in 24 hours, down 2 pts in 7 days and unchanged in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:17 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 4 November 2026 (4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC, in about 1 day) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$2.7M in total and $263k in the last 24 hours, with about $1.1M in open positions (open interest) and $1.8M of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:17 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Alaska Senate Election Winner". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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