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World
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
11%chanceup 4 pts
- Vol$2.9M
- 24h$12k
- Liquidity$55k
- Open interest$263k
- Closesin 59d
In short
- Yes on "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027" trades at 11% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 21:53 UTC).
- 24-hour move: up 4 pts; 7 days: up 1 pt; 30 days: up 2 pts.
- Traded: $2.9M in total, $12k in 24 hours; open interest $263k; liquidity $55k.
- Listed to close on 1 January 2027; bid-ask spread on Yes 2¢.
The odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 30d | Decimal | American |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | up 4 | 9.1 | +809 | ||
| No | 89% | down 4 | 1.12 | -809 |
What would move this market
- Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
- Time. It closes on 1 January 2027 (about 59 days away). On a deadline question, every day that passes without the event usually pulls the Yes price down, unless news makes it more likely.
- At 11% Yes is a long shot. Long shots tend to be slightly overpriced, and a confirming headline can multiply the price quickly.
In the news
- What we know about the alert app hack in Ukraine and Russia · BBC World, 2 Nov 2026, 14:24 UTC
- Hundreds evacuate city during temporary ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine · NPR, 2 Nov 2026, 09:42 UTC
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Closes:
- 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
- How results are settled:
- Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.
How to read these odds
A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 11% means about 11¢ a share and roughly 9.1x back if right. The prices of all outcomes add up to about 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.
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FAQ
What are the odds on "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?"?
At 2 Nov 2026, 21:53 UTC, Polymarket traders put Yes at 11%, which is decimal odds of 9.1 or American +809. A Yes share costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
How have the odds moved?
Yes: up 4 pts in 24 hours, up 1 pt in 7 days and up 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:53 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.
When does this market resolve?
It is listed to close on 1 January 2027 (1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC, in about 59 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.
How much has been traded on it?
$2.9M in total and $12k in the last 24 hours, with about $263k in open positions (open interest) and $55k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 21:53 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From the public Polymarket market "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.
Are prediction market odds accurate?
On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.
Can I bet on this on PredictRips?
Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.
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