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World

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: June 30, 2027

7%chance024h

  • Vol$4.6M
  • 24h$60k
  • Liquidity$133k
  • Open interest$774k
  • Closesin 241d
  • June 30, 2027
  • December 31
June 30, 2027 chance over 30 days: from 9% to 7%.

In short

Prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:47 UTC: June 30, 2027 7%, December 31 2%. Each outcome is priced on its own (a date or price level can't be ranked like candidates); $4.6M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 July 2027.
Key numbers
  • June 30, 2027, the favourite in "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by", trades at 7% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 13:47 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: down 1 pt; 7 days: down 2 pts; 30 days: down 2 pts.
  • Traded: $4.6M in total, $60k in 24 hours; open interest $774k; liquidity $133k.
  • Listed to close on 1 July 2027; bid-ask spread on June 30, 2027 2¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:47 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
June 30, 20277%014+1329
December 312%n/a44+4344

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • June 30, 20277%

    0 in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when June 30, 2027 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · June 30, 2027 down 4 pts (9% to 5%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.
  • What counts in the end: the source the rules name (storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). Reports elsewhere move the price; only that source settles it.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Resolution source:
storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
Closes:
1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 7% means about 7¢ a share and roughly 14x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 13:47 UTC, June 30, 2027 at 7%, then December 31 at 2%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

June 30, 2027: down 1 pt in 24 hours, down 2 pts in 7 days and down 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:47 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 July 2027 (1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC, in about 241 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules, with storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 as the named source. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$4.6M in total and $60k in the last 24 hours, with about $774k in open positions (open interest) and $133k of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 13:47 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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