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World

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: December 31, 2027

71%chanceup 1 pt24h

  • Vol$10.3M
  • 24h$55k
  • Liquidity$1.1M
  • Open interest$620k
  • Closesin 240d
  • December 31, 2027
  • November 30, 2027
  • October 31, 2027
  • September 30, 2027
December 31, 2027 chance over 30 days: from 69% to 71%.

In short

Prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:12 UTC: December 31, 2027 71%, November 30, 2027 68%, October 31, 2027 65%. Each outcome is priced on its own (a date or price level can't be ranked like candidates); $10.3M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 July 2027.
Key numbers
  • December 31, 2027, the favourite in "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by", trades at 71% on Polymarket (2 Nov 2026, 20:12 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 1 pt; 7 days: unchanged; 30 days: up 2 pts.
  • Traded: $10.3M in total, $55k in 24 hours; open interest $620k; liquidity $1.1M.
  • Listed to close on 1 July 2027; bid-ask spread on December 31, 2027 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by”, prices as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:12 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
December 31, 202771%up 11.42-239
November 30, 202768%n/a1.48-208
October 31, 202765%n/a1.55-182
September 30, 202764%n/a1.56-178
August 31, 202762%down 11.63-160
July 31, 202758%n/a1.72-138
June 30, 202754%up 11.87-115
May 31, 202752%n/a1.94-106
April 30, 202742%up 12.4+141
March 31, 202734%n/a3.0+199
February 28, 202728%n/a3.6+264
January 31, 202723%04.4+344
December 3116%up 26.5+545
November 308%up 113+1233

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • December 3116%

    up 2 pts in 24h

  • August 31, 202762%

    down 1 pt in 24h

  • December 31, 202771%

    up 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when December 31, 2027 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · December 31, 2027 down 4 pts (71% to 67%)

What would move this market

  • Official statements, negotiations and deadlines, military action, sanctions, and votes at the UN or in parliaments.

In the news

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Closes:
1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 71% means about 71¢ a share and roughly 1.42x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?"?

At 2 Nov 2026, 20:12 UTC, December 31, 2027 at 71%, then November 30, 2027 at 68% and October 31, 2027 at 65%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

December 31, 2027: up 1 pt in 24 hours, unchanged in 7 days and up 2 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:12 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 July 2027 (1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC, in about 240 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$10.3M in total and $55k in the last 24 hours, with about $620k in open positions (open interest) and $1.1M of liquidity in the order book, as of 2 Nov 2026, 20:12 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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