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Politics

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Live Polymarket odds · updated , refreshed about every 5 minutes.

Favourite: June 30, 2027

42%chanceup 1 pt24h

  • Vol$4.6M
  • 24h$12k
  • Liquidity$86k
  • Open interest$400k
  • Closesin 241d
  • June 30, 2027
  • December 31
June 30, 2027 chance over 30 days: from 35% to 42%.

In short

Prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC: June 30, 2027 42%, December 31 15%. Each outcome is priced on its own (a date or price level can't be ranked like candidates); $4.6M has been traded on it on Polymarket, and it is listed to close on 1 July 2027.
Key numbers
  • June 30, 2027, the favourite in "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by", trades at 42% on Polymarket (1 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC).
  • 24-hour move: up 1 pt; 7 days: up 1 pt; 30 days: up 7 pts.
  • Traded: $4.6M in total, $12k in 24 hours; open interest $400k; liquidity $86k.
  • Listed to close on 1 July 2027; bid-ask spread on June 30, 2027 1¢.

Source: Polymarket market data, as of . Cite as: PredictRips, “predictrips.com/odds/q/will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by”, prices as of 1 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC. How the numbers work.

Every outcome, most likely first

Chance = the price of a share that pays $1 if that outcome happens. Moves are in percentage points. Decimal and American odds are the same number in sportsbook terms, before fees.

OutcomeChance24hDecimalAmerican
June 30, 202742%up 12.4+141
December 3115%down 16.9+590

Biggest moves in 24 hours

  • December 3115%

    down 1 pt in 24h

  • June 30, 202742%

    up 1 pt in 24h

Timeline of big moves

Days in the last 30 when June 30, 2027 moved 4 points or more within 24 hours, newest first, from Polymarket's price history. A headline is shown when one from our news feeds matches the market and was published around the move.

  1. · June 30, 2027 down 15 pts (53% to 38%)

  2. · June 30, 2027 down 9 pts (54% to 45%)

  3. · June 30, 2027 up 13 pts (41% to 54%)

  4. · June 30, 2027 down 4 pts (42% to 38%)

  5. · June 30, 2027 up 9 pts (35% to 44%)

  6. · June 30, 2027 down 10 pts (44% to 35%)

What would move this market

  • Votes, court rulings, filings and official announcements, and reporting by the outlets the rules name.

How it resolves

The rules, word for word as Polymarket publishes them:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Closes:
1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC
How results are settled:
Polymarket markets are typically settled through UMA's optimistic oracle: a result is proposed after the event, can be disputed during a challenge window, and is final once undisputed or decided.

Source market on Polymarket

How to read these odds

A share of each outcome costs its chance in cents and pays $1 if it happens, so 42% means about 42¢ a share and roughly 2.4x back if right. On a ladder of dates or levels each rung is its own yes/no market, so the prices don't add up to 100%. Guides: reading Polymarket odds, odds to probability, glossary.

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FAQ

What are the odds on "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?"?

At 1 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC, June 30, 2027 at 42%, then December 31 at 15%. Each price is the cost of a share that pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How have the odds moved?

June 30, 2027: up 1 pt in 24 hours, up 1 pt in 7 days and up 7 pts in 30 days (in percentage points), as of 1 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC. The chart and the timeline on this page show when the big moves happened.

When does this market resolve?

It is listed to close on 1 July 2027 (1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC, in about 241 days) and settles under Polymarket's written rules. Settlement can come after the close, once the result is confirmed.

How much has been traded on it?

$4.6M in total and $12k in the last 24 hours, with about $400k in open positions (open interest) and $86k of liquidity in the order book, as of 1 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTC.

Where do these odds come from?

From the public Polymarket market "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?". This page reads its live prices about every 5 minutes and states when each number was taken; PredictRips does not set them. A chance is the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the book is tight, else the last price.

Are prediction market odds accurate?

On heavily traded markets, prices have tracked outcomes reasonably well: events priced near 70% happen roughly 70% of the time. They are a crowd estimate that moves with news, not a forecast, and long shots tend to be overpriced.

Can I bet on this on PredictRips?

Not on one market directly. PredictRips sells packs that each draw 3 random positions from its live pool of Polymarket markets, which can include politics, crypto, sport and macro questions; the odds and pack value are shown before you pay. 18+, and only where it is legal.

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